For BJP, Is this The Beginning of the End?
I was thinking of writing this post later this week (after going through almost 100 pages of reading material I have accumulated. However, recent events – including Arun Shourie’s impromptu press conference yesterday – have forced my hand.
I will add the points I wanted to make in my original post via the comments section. For now, I want to open this thread to prompt a discussion on the apparent unraveling of the only credible opposition to Congress. It feels like this is the beginning of the end for BJP.
I would like to read what you think about this. Pl. add your thoughts via the comments section (if you do not wish to revela your email id, pl. use this email address: satyacomment@gmail.com)
Here are a few links to trigger the discussion (in no particular order, except Arun Shourie’s piece – which you should read first):
The 4-part series by Arun Shourie published in The Indian Express – In my opinion, a *must* read for anyone remotely considering joining a political party (or anyone who is already a member of one). Sh Shourie’s lament is hardly new but his masterful analysis is worth reading.
Kanchan Gupta‘s analysis
BJP gets into needless spat by Swapan Dasgupta
If the BJP has a future, it’s not with Advani, Rajnath by Ashok Malik
Retribution’s take on Jaswant Singh’s expulsion
Party to Differences by Pratap Bhanu Mehta
As an aside, do also have a quick read through RSS’ Chief Sh Mohan Bhagwat’s recent interview.
Related Posts:
I was initially distressed to read the apparent self-destruction unfolding before our very eyes.
After speaking to some insiders, i am less anxious.
I am led to believe that what is happening in the BJP is a true, no-holds barred generational transition.
The old guard is not interested in going gentle into the good night. Yet, intellectuals are asking the right and honest questions. Be they jaswant singh, shourie, yashwant sinha or the others.
RSS’s weighing in is actually also a good sign — indicating they’re not happy with how things are panning out.
All these, on reflection are a good sign: its about an institution’s leaders dissenting, asking questions and pushing for change.
As opposed to the kkk-angress where they’re one nation of sycophants under anyone named *.gandhi.
The only uncertainty: after the mess is cleared, who (as in which team) will be the gen-next?
AG: Is there a gen-next within BJP? I don’t think so.
There’s some!
There’s Modi, Yeddy, Jaitley. Even Varun.
But its clearly not enough — if there ever was a gap smart young guys like you could fill — here it is!
Shantanu speaks of the “…apparent unraveling of the only credible opposition to Congress. It feels like this is the beginning of the end for BJP”
Prophetic words indeed.
Credible and principled opposition is needed. It does not need to be in the form of the BJP as we see now. BJP is behaving like the Congress within the party…
Perhaps there is something to rejoice ?
http://in.news.yahoo.com/43/20090824/818/tnl-jaswant-stopped-vajpayee-from-quitti.html
And I quote:
Jaswant Singh said: ‘We (Advani, Arun Shourie and Jaswant along with Vajpayee) were in the aircraft (on the way to Goa for a BJP meeting) as Vajpayeeji had asked us to discuss few things… He (Vajpayee) asked, Gujarat ka kya karna hai (What has to be done about Gujarat)?… There was silence for some time. He then said Gujarat ke bare mein sochna chahiye (We have to decide about Gujarat). Then Advaniji went towards the bathroom… Atalji said poochhiye fir kya karna hai (Ask him what has to be done)?
‘I went and asked Advaniji. Advaniji just said one phrase bawaal khada ho jayega party mein (it will create commotion in the party).’
——–
Does Jaswant know more about Gujarat? I really wonder. Banning Jaswant’s book in Gujarat is the heights. We are crazy about book banning in India. Any thoughts on this ban in Gujarat?
it would be wishful thinking on our part that sense will prevail in the BJP. advani, rajnath and crew will continue on their path of self destruction. however this would be a good opportunity to create a new opposition party for the congress. a new organization that will be free from the handicaps suffered by BJP. ofcourse it would mean reinventing the wheel all over again and it will take a lot of time before this prospective new organization can turn into something worthwhile. i definitely see a potential in jaswant-yashwant-shourie combo in starting or joining up with a new organization (how about Freedom team of india?
). funds could be raised using the obama strategy and the global network of indians working abroad and like minded individuals out here. a lot of work ahead but better to go ahead with this approach. recent actions by BJP has shown that they have buried their heads in sand and they are proud of it too.
@ AG: The gap is indeed wide open…Let us see who fills it..
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@ gundoo: No, unfortunately can’t see much to rejoice at all.
***
@ Gujarat: Banning a book is NEVER a good idea…As Vajpayee-ji is reported to have remarked…The only answer to a bad/offensive/inaccurate book must be another book.
***
@ daanveer: Good thought…Let us see how this unfolds.
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All: Wonder how long before Sh Shourie is “expelled”.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Schumpeter
Schumpeter and democratic theory:
In the same book, Schumpeter expounded a theory of democracy which sought to challenge what he called the “classical doctrine”. He disputed the idea that democracy was a process by which the electorate identified the common good, and politicians carried this out for them. He argued this was unrealistic, and that people’s ignorance and superficiality meant that in fact they were largely manipulated by politicians, who set the agenda. This made a ‘rule by the people’ concept both unlikely and undesirable. Instead he advocated a minimalist model, much influenced by Max Weber, whereby democracy is the mechanism for competition between leaders, much like a market structure. Although periodic votes by the general public legitimize governments and keep them accountable, the policy program is very much seen as their own and not that of the people, and the participatory role for individuals is usually severely limited.
@ Sanjay: democracy is the mechanism for competition between leaders…
So true.
By the way, does anyone think Sh Shourie will last this week in BJP?
Also, links to the interview of Sh Mohan Bhagwat: http://www.timesnow.tv/RSS-chief-breaks-his-silence—Part-1/videoshow/4325070.cms
The text version of this interview: http://www.timesnow.tv/articleshow/4325123.cms
> There’s Modi, ….
Thats some gen X! Let’s start with banning all the books which hurt our sentiments. This book banning in Gujarat is VERY VERY disturbing and is a big RED flag. Ban a book written by none other than a former party member!! Modi fans should be careful about what they wish for.
1. Remove Rajnath. He is causing too much destruction
2. Appoint Sushma Swaraj as leader of opposition in Parliament. It will do wonders to the image of BJP. Infact in my opinion, she is the next Vajpayee of BJP (actually wrote about it immediately after the electios here – http://serious–fun.blogspot.com/2009/06/next-vajpayee-for-bjp.html )
3. Advani needs to come out of his shock after the defeat, and start playing an active role, not in party affairs, but in deciding the second rung leadership. When Vajpayee stepped down, he annouced Pramod as his successor. Unfortunately, he is no more. Advani needs to step down ASAP. The very thought that he will continue for another 5 years will spell doom. Don’t get me wrong, I have utmost respect for him, but his time has come.
4. BJP needs to build its organisation in the South, West Bengal etc. If you have NO presence at all in ~200 seats, and don’t have a moderate face like Vajpayee, how can you think of coming back to power again?
5. Modi is an awesome visionary, no doubt, but to the people of the country, he will only be remembered for Godhra. So instead of making him the face, it is better to utilize his services for adiministrative responsibilities. He can become the Advani to Sushma.
I strongly believe that Congress is getting away purely because of a very week opposition. It is very important that the blunders Congress is making are effectively countered, and my suggestions to the BJP are in those lines.
– Sudhir
I agree to Sh. Shourie on the following points
1. we need a Jhataka not Halal.
2. Its time for Advani, Rajnath to bid good bye. Jatley by no means shuld take over.
However My own contentions are as follows
1. Modi might be a good politician but cant provide any sort of ideological compass to the party. He has showed this by the knee jerk reaction of banning the book.
2. I do not think RSS is capable of taking over BJP. It itself is so anti-intellectual that they would rather give Shourie a Jhataka than to the party.
I personally find Digvijay Singh, Vasundhara, Varun to be BJP’s future.
Maybe it is time for a new Hindu party. I for one would like see a party of intellectuals who have a more democratic set-up where true merit gets recognized. If the BJP had any brains, they would have made Shourie a PM candidate long ago.
BJP is tainted–by both the Babari Masjid and the Gujarat riots (no matter how they try to explain away both). Inspite of this, we still do not have a temple or a uniform civil code. So they failed to deliver on promises.
It is time for a party which seekw reform using legal means. It is also time for a party which actually understands what national interest and security constitute, what a good foreign policy entails and how development needs to touch every part of India. I don’t see the current BJP with its current leadership having a clear idea on any of these.
Our pluralistic Hindu society needs multiple parties working together and reaching all sections of society. Time for the Sangh to consider starting its own in-house Left-of-Center party instead of having to rely on unreliable partners like JD(U), BJD and TDP.
New party to be initially confined to states where BJP is absent (Kerala, TN, AP, Orissa and WB – total 164 seats in Lok Sabha).
BJP to co-exist in these states, but as a junior partner. BJP to remain rightist Hindutva party.
New party to carry along moderate Hindus and expand the support base. Emphasis on Swadeshi economics and sustainable living; encroach into Leftist space.
Till it can stand on its own, the new party can ally with regional parties like TDP, BJD, JDU. Act as a bridge between BJP and regional parties opposed to Congress.
It will be like twin-engines taking Hindu interests forward.
Sitting next to the computer and commenting on some issues is easy. And this applies to all of us.
Why not to come forward and start restructuring BJP. If not BJP, then lets join FTI[Freedom Team India] or something where we can align ourselves. Lets decide some timeline and then start working part time where ever we are in our constituency.
!! Jai Hind !!
NOTE: catact me if someone feels passionate and willing to work for country.
sandeepnshelke AT gmail DOT com
As painful as it may look that BJP is walking self destruction path, I am actually happy that the intellectuals are coming against the party stand. I was miffed at what has been going at BJP and was dejected that the only credible party I thought was there in India was working just like the others. Well seems like my favorite shourie took matters into hand and came against it yet again.
I don’t think the current leadership would vacate their stand for any other leaders from the next generation. As someone rightly pointed out where is the next generation anyways. I believed there is democracy inside BJP but the way appointments were done to party positions left me quite bewildered. I am not against sushma swaraj or Arun Jaitley and think they are quite capable but taking a dictatorial approach to party functioning is sure path to doom.
A party cannot change its idealogical stand. Thats suicide !! BJP is a right wing nationalist party and thats the way it should remain. I believe BJP is losing ground because its become so similar to congress in all respects. There has to be an alternative which people can select and that alternative stand should be more pronounced.
BJP is a natural choice for people who believe in nation building and believe me there are many of us. They would be a good ambassadors for getting more people into BJP fold, however from what I am gathering with people around me they feel lost with the current working on BJP. It has ceased to be a party with a difference and it is becoming more and more like congress.
Times change, and priorities change along with them. What also changes is the way one delivers the message to the public. What does not change and must not change is the party stand on its core ideology and functioning. If that happens the party is gone !
BJP as we now is perhaps about the change and I am certain something good is coming out of this
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@ #17 ????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
NOT ANOTHER HINDOOOOOOOOOOO PARTY PLS …..
this business of looking for “another” hindooooooo party will only set off ripples of too many parties by oppurtunist casteist fellas and we are most likely to end up with more regional caste based parties masquerading as hindoootvavaadis!
the mandate infront of the bjp is clear …. stand for ur name ….that is …… be a politcal party that will work to keep alive the flame of bharatiyata among the janata ….
too many people quitting one after the other…. you can look at it either as the end of the BJP or a carefully orchestrated strategy…jaswant, raje, sudheendra kulkarni, shourie…. so much happening so quickly…. i think there might be a plan… it is much more than the infighting and I am forced to believe this is a ploy and there is more than what meets the eye… lets accept it, the BJP has some of the brightest and sharpest minds…any views??
All: Thanks a lot for your comments…Am traveling throughout this week so will be unable to respond as promptly as I would have liked.
Pl continue the discussion
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@ Comment # 17 (loose translation): Special Message for BJP: “Sangham Sharanam Gacchami” (Buddhist prayer). RSS is the only one which can show the way out (for BJP) out of this self-constructed “chakravyuh”
Ideology should not change but there must be constant rethinking about the relevance and contemporariness of the ideology. Religions fail to remain relevant an contemporary as the times change, society evolves and generates new knowledge. A political ideology at least has shoter lifespan and are meant to achieve a purpose. They need to be dynamic and adaptable to realities.
BJP needs to re-interpret it’s ideology and change it’s ideology. When I say re-interpret I do not mean find a new one based on Whig ideology is selling in the electoral marketplace. I mean that there must be re-thinking about the mening of the core ideology. If it is found that the old ideology is not relevant, they must close the party and all of them should take Sanyas, rather than trying to fins a new ideology unfer the same banner.
An ideology should not be drawn based on the likes and dislikes of public and what sells aNd what not in the electoral Market place. The new ideology should come out of the a process of ideological churning where there should be wider debate among the concerned.
BJP need to do a Samudra Manthan to get the elixir of ideology; but someone mustbe ready doe the venom- and that someon can not be a scapegot rooky – it has to be someone who is respected and revered like Lord Shiva. Is there any one ready to drink the venom for the party to get Amrit? I think everyone is behind the amrit and no one I ready to take the visha. More so because there seems to be no Mahadeva in BJP – all of them are Devas looking for the bounty.
Hehehehehehe ….. poor ole iron man is rusted, but still hanging on to his place ….
Sad end for a political party that could have done us proud – I do hope that it can rejuvenate itself in a better form – else, I worry about the void that it will leave behind.
And, I think the debate is finally ended – who does the BJP need more – Vajpayee or Advani.
Cheers
why did they drag sardar patel’s name in the mudsling ? even k.sudarshan has joined the ‘free for all’ defamation of sardar patel .
Here’s a “leading historian” who teaches at Delhi University characterizing Hindu-ness as militant Hindutva wrt BJP. And another gem from him: “The party itself has walked a fine line between posing as an alternate pole of power and being a militant party defined by an ideological core that stresses the Hindu-ness of India.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8226023.stm
All: Thanks for your comments…There was a lot of action on fri/sat post Sh Bhagwat’s press conference…Wonder how this is all going to end…
Contrary to many observers, I am still not hopeful about BJP’s future…I think it is in a slow downfall…
BJP’s downfall has actually started with the result of 2004 elections which they lost in the wake of not being able to take any action against Narendra Modi for his controversial role in Gujarat carnage. . So the present crisis is another series of that process of down fall of BJP. But it does not mean that the party will die; no! It will continue to get weaker by such events but it will not end because a core of radical Hindu voter will keep voting for the party. And this core voter exits, and will always exist in India(may be in smaller number with changing time).
One must realize that it’s the positive perception of any party in the people’s mind which gets translated into votes. So people’s perception towards BJP started falling after its inability to tackle the situation in Gujrat. Many other cases like Advani’s controversial view on Jinnah, Varun Gandhi’s speech in Pilibhit, most recently Jasawant Singh’s expulsion have done enough damage to the image of the party, so indeed it has started shrinking and people’s perception(positive) for the party is no more as It used to be when Vajpayee was prime minister. It will continue to go down because it has no more Vajpayee left there, and people is no more gullible enough(which they used to be in 1991) that they can be befooled again with the rhetoric’s of hard core hindutva or temple issues.
At the same time, the party will not become a part of the history as long as it has the support of RSS. Through this cadre based approach across the nation, the party will continue to win some seats here and there but that will not sufficiently allow them to form any government at centre. But in this strength of being liked with RSS, BJP’s real weakness also lies, which is that every political party has to reinvent itself according to the needs, aspirations of its people(which changes with changing time). But this party can’t go away from hard hindutwa, thus can never become a party of centre right which can appeal to the masses. Therefore it could be able to make government at centre in 2014by consolidating NDA allies which one after another is leaving the BJP.
The BJP & NDA will receive its very crucial jolt in 2014 Lok Sabha elections when they will project Modi as prime ministerial candidate, due to that even they might lose the elections too! Since there is no other right wing centre party in the country apart from the BJP, so this situation throws no choice to the NDA allies but to remain with BJP since the allies (most of them because of being anti-congress) can’t go with the UPA. So the absence of another party at centre also helps BJP remain in some comfortable position despite of being getting weaker and weaker day by day.
Extracted from an email by Dr S Kalyanaraman-ji:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/19422320/bjp
Click on this link for an extraordinary series of 3 articles by BJP which appeared in the Indian Express on Aug. 25, 26 and 27. I have titled this set of 3 articles as: Jaswant’s Jinnah and implosion of BJP by Arun Shourie.
Article 1 is titled: A few extracts from the book (that is, Jaswant’s book) Article 2 is titled: The ban and the law (that is, a reference to Gujarat Govt.’s ban on the book)
Article 3 is titled: Master strategies (that is, strategies by those holding the reins of BJP)
Though Articles 1 and 2 provide the backdrop and make for good reading, let me focus on Article 3.
Article 3 is quite unlike Arun Shourie’s straight-forward articles which made him a by-word among journalists as a sharp-shooter.
In this article, Arun Shourie is indulging in an Alice in the Wonderland metaphor to identify the key actors related to BJP strategising the implosion of the BJP. Of course, there is no mention of Arun Shourie himself as a key insider in this sordid drama presented through Alice riddles. I don’t think he would like to categorise himself as a kicking-horse.
What is Arun trying to convey?
I leave it to him to do the explaining himself, but let me venture some views on the state of the party to which Arun Shourie belongs.
1. Core ideology of the party is the reverence for the leader (I assume, this refers to Advani).
2. Dead horses are promoted to supervisory positions (I assume, this refers to the ‘second-rung’ leadership of BJP in its parliamentary board; I don’t
have to name them).
3. Since dead horses are not really dead, they have the potential to throw kicks. (I think this is an opinion unsubstantiated by facts, unless Arun Shourie comes out with unambiguous precision without hiding behind the Alice
metaphor or even the dead horse metaphor.)
4. The party is incapable of introspection.
One thing is clear. There is no second-rung leadership (they are really dead horses promoted to supervisory positions) and if BJP has to be revived, these dead horses have to be really removed from supervisory positions and made ordinary field workers.
Another thing is clear. BJP is in a very, very bad shape, almost in a terminal state of illness (that is, not exactly a dead horse but a dying horse without any capacity to think).
To make the horse trot again, a panchayat of the party units from the mandal and district level has to be convened in a think (chintan) baithak.
This is my take on the Wonderland called BJP and creating some hope for the rashtram to be served by a party once called the BJP. The J in BJP is becoming a metaphor. The J in BJP has to be restored for the horse to limp back to action.
I am rather more sceptical of a turn around in the fortunes of the BJP That has less to do with the BJP itself and more to do with the malaise that afflicts the Hindu psyche. India in its entire history has ever had one single undisputed leader, and that is King Bharat of ancient fame. The fact that even his great fame is sullied in modern times is reflected in the name we have adopted for our country as India rather than Bharat.
There has been thunderous declamation of Christians in the comments but little in the way of critique that has brought Hindus to their present state. Even Krishna of the Bhagavid Geeta is really one of many Gods. That may appeal to the vanity of some Hindus that our religion is pluralistic but what the Christians have done with Jesus as the embodiment of their one God is that it settled the line of authority for the enforcement of rules and conduct of their civil society which is completely lacking in Hinduism. The civil society in India is meaningless in comparison.
If India is not going to subscribe to a single authority no matter how great the fame and renown of their leaders, it would have to depend on a conjunction of the interests of diverse individuals. This seems to better reflected in the Congress Party under Sonia Gandhi than anything the Hindus have been able to throw up.
Since the natural condition of India is disarray they not see anything wrong with their conduct which has been on par for the course for the several thousand years of its history.
I hope the BJP leaders see the writing on the wall for them if they do not put their house in order.
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That may appeal to the vanity of some Hindus that our religion is pluralistic but what the Christians have done with Jesus as the embodiment of their one God is that it settled the line of authority for the enforcement of rules and conduct of their civil society which is completely lacking in Hinduism.
=>
But how does that explain the different Christian denominations and their rivalry with each other, with different evangelical groups trying their best to poach members from other groups, even though they all believe in Jesus?
@Kaffir
The Christians settled their doctrine of their God as the son, father and the holy ghost (the trinity) very early in their history. Their is no dispute on that question in the Christian religion except for one or two sects on the fringes which cannot be described as Christian.
The first division was adminsitrative when the Roman Empire was separately administered from the East and West. There was little in the way of differences in theology. The final break only came between the Orthodox and Catholics when the West tried to seize political control of the East. Later manifestations on doctrines were underpinned by political considerations.
The differences you speak of are overstated. The institutions of the church adapted to the new realities. In particular the the bible became the final authority of the religion.
Indian conditions provide their own dynamics and nothing would surprise me about the skull-duggery that goes on.
SHANTANU … R U THERE? more than 10 days have passed since this post was taken up for discussion …. i guess it is fair now to expect shantanu to come out with the detailed analysis of events he has been promising us so long …..
KP, the phenomenon of different evangelical Christian groups poaching members of other Christian groups is not unique to India, and has been happening in African countries, and likely in other Asian countries, too.
Vivekam: Sorry to disappoint you but I am not going to have time for this…I will probably read all the stuff at some point but by then most of it would be stale – in any case, a LOT (and I do mean a LOT) of points have been made on blogs, newspaper articles and in private conversations…
But does it really matter?
In times of crisis, advice is a cheap commodity…
If we really want to help create a credible opposition to Congress, I feel the movement should start from outside, not within the BJP…Too many things that are broken within the organisation (I feel)…
But are we ready?
In any case, do pl. share your own view(s) on the happenings.
Thanks
@#34
shantanu … thnx 4 the reply … nope … not disappointed … jus happy to confirm that u r a shrewd politician … or will be one …
Vivekam. V
It happened, many times I stumbled upon your blog. Good reading but no updates and no new post. Many issues need to be addressed. Do something about it.
Thanks
@#36 indian …
thnx for the interest … i agree that i hve been lapsing … the reason for that is that i am trying not keep my blog a current affairs or issues site …. i am trying to do wht little i can , to take an original view point about wht i see around me … i agree i am far from being prolific … the second post is ready and should be out this weekend … so do chk back and thnx again
@#36 indian …
here it is as promised …. thnk u for the interest….
http://vivekamvairagyam.wordpress.com/2009/09/19/when-hindoos-dont/
Shantanu,
I hope you are keeping track of the BJP drama in Karnataka with Yediyurappa shedding tears on TV.
Here is an interesting opinion piece:
Those Who Live by Reddys Shall Die By Them
Political activity is a big-money-business with all the horse-trading and crores at stake with mining industry in the current crisis. Take a look at the effect on Karnataka since 1978:
Karnataka’s tryst with political instability continues
@KK: “Political activity is a big-money-business with all the horse-trading and crores at stake with mining industry in the current crisis.”
Prescient words! Check my latest blog post in a few hours..on Sh Koda.
And while on this, the situation has been summed up well by Swapan Dasgupta (emphasis added):