In this part of the “Nightmare at Noon” series, a look at why “Water” is the new “Oil”, the possibility of water scarcity leading to “Water Wars” in the future and China’s worrying plans in Tibet.

It was almost two years ago that I was first alerted to the gravity of this matter. The first trigger was an article by Prof. Brahma Chellaney (Jun 2007)  in which he warned about how:

Water has emerged as a key issue that could determine whether Asia is headed toward mutually beneficial cooperation or deleterious interstate competition. No country could influence that direction more than China, which controls the Tibetan plateau -  the source of most major rivers of Asia.

Prof Chellaney noted:

Tibet’s…river waters are a lifeline to the world’s two most-populous states – China and India -  as well as to Bangladesh, Myanmar, Bhutan, Nepal, Cambodia, Pakistan, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam. These countries make up 47 percent of the global population. Yet Asia is a water-deficient continent. Although home to more than half of the human population, Asia has less fresh water – 3,920 cubic meters per person – than any continent besides Antarctica.

…While intrastate water-sharing disputes have become rife in several Asian countries – from India and Pakistan to Southeast Asia and China – it is the potential interstate conflict over river-water resources that should be of greater concern. This concern arises from Chinese attempts to dam or redirect the southward flow of river waters from the Tibetan plateau, where major rivers originate, including the Indus, the Mekong, the Yangtze, the Yellow, the Salween, the Brahmaputra, the Karnali and the Sutlej. Among Asia’s mighty rivers, only the Ganges starts from the Indian side of the Himalayas.

…As water woes have been aggravated in its north due to environmentally unsustainable intensive farming, China has increasingly turned its attention to the bounteous water reserves that the Tibetan plateau holds…Several Chinese projects in west-central Tibet (have a) bearing on river-water flows into India, but Beijing is loath to share information.

…Control over the 2.5 million-square-km Tibetan plateau gives China tremendous leverage, besides access to vast natural resources. Having extensively contaminated its own major rivers through unbridled industrialization, China now threatens the ecological viability of river systems tied to South and Southeast Asia in its bid to meet its thirst for water and energy.

…The traditional Tibet is not just a distinct cultural entity but also a natural plateau, the future of whose water reserves is tied to ecological conservation. As China’s hunger for primary commodities has grown, so too has its exploitation of Tibet’s resources. And as water woes have intensified in several major Chinese cities, a group of ex-officials have championed the northward rerouting of the waters of the Brahmaputra in a book enlighteningly titled “Tibet’s Waters Will Save China.”

…As in the past, no country is going to be more affected by Chinese plans and projects in Tibet than India…In fact, Beijing has identified the bend where the Brahmaputra forms the world’s longest and deepest canyon just before entering India as holding the largest untapped reserves for meeting its water and energy needs.

Prof Chellaney’s concluding sentence should have been enough to shake us out of our stupor:

The mega-rerouting (of Tibetan waters northwards) would constitute the declaration of a water war on lower-riparian India and Bangladesh.

This stark warning about a potential danger was predictably ignored and forgotten.

The danger of a potential conflict was also highlighted by Rohit P Singh in “The Geopolitics of the Tibetan Plateau“. Rohit wrote (emphasis mine):

In the recent past, concerns about interstate conflict have arisen from China’s attempts to dam or redirect the southward flow of river waters from the Tibetan plateau, where several major rivers originate, including the Indus, the Mekong, the Yangtze, the Yellow, the Salween, the Brahmaputra, the Karnali and the Sutlej. China is among the driest nations on earth with more than one-fourth of its land classified as desert. Rivers there are either too polluted or too filled with silt to provide all of the country’s 1.3 billion people with adequate supplies of freshwater. In its attempts to solve its water crisis, China has become a potentially dangerous nation to its neighbors. After building two dams upstream, China now has plans to divert the fast-flowing Brahmaputra northward to feed the arid areas of its heartland, and to build three more dams on the Mekong, which has amplified rages in Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Thailand. In sum, as China has exhausted its own resources, it is now threatening the ecological viability of nations in South and Southeast Asia.

…The countries that would be most gravely affected by China’s plans are India and Bangladesh. China seems to be intent on pursuing its water projects, and the idea of a great “south-north water transfer” project that diverts river waters descending from the Tibetan highlands has been backed by President Hu Jintao. Under the “south-north water transfer” project, water will first be drawn from the Jinsha, Yalong and Dadu rivers, on the eastern rim of the Tibetan plateau, by building 300 kilometers of tunnels and channels. In the second phase, water will be directed northward from the Shuomatan Point, or the “Great Bend”, which is found just before the water enters India and from whence it is known as the Brahmaputra. This second phase will begin when any water shortage becomes acute in China, and could provoke a water war with India and Bangladesh as these countries try to protect their riparian regions.

A shortage of water in the Ganges has already affected the lives of millions of people in Bangladesh and has driven them to illegally migrate to India. This migration has resulted in a marked demographic change in India’s Northeastern states (especially Assam) and has been the cause of several social and cultural conflicts in the region. If Bangladesh faces a shortage of water in the Brahmaputra due to China’s upstream diversion plans, this migration will likely increase to dangerous levels and threaten the lives of thousands in Assam and other states.

Image courtesy: IIT Guwahati

In May 2007, Martin Walker, UPI Editor Emeritus wrote (emphasis added):

The most dangerous place on Earth right now may not be in Iraq, nor in the Gaza Strip nor even in some underground nuclear laboratory in Iran or North Korea. It is on the roof of the world, at a place called Namcha Barwa on the eastern plateau of Tibet.

This is the cradle of the headwaters of what the Chinese call the Tsangpo River, and at over 14,000 feet above sea level, it is the world’s highest. For India and Bangladesh, this is the Brahmaputra, on which Bangladesh depends for more than half of its fresh water, and its crops need the annual gift of the fertile silt it carries.

For India, according to the Department of Environmental Science at Assam’s Gauhati University: “The Brahmaputra basin in India is most generously gifted with a fabulous water wealth that accounts for nearly 30 percent of the total water resources and about 40 percent of the total hydropower potential of the country.”

It is at this point in Tibet that China is planning to build the world’s largest dam, with 26 turbines, expected to generate 40 million kilowatts per hour of hydroelectricity. Thanks to the steep drop the river makes, this is twice the expected output of the famous Three Gorges Dam over the Yangtse.

…When India raised concerns about these plans during the last visit to New Delhi of Chinese leader Hu Jintao (himself a water engineer by training), China said no such plans existed. But something is certainly afoot, according to China’s own media, who report that a survey of river potential is now under way in Tibet.

…There is no doubt that China needs the water. But so do India and Bangladesh. In this context, water is a matter of life and death, which is why the decision to be made in Beijing whether to go ahead with damming the Brahmaputra makes this tiny corner of Tibet potentially the most dangerous place on Earth.

In Apr 2008, Sonia Jabbar talked of wake-up call in her article, “Why Tibet Matters”

While one is not advocating India’s lebensraum or hostilities with China, one should be aware that China controls the headwaters of many Indian rivers that originate in the Tibetan plateau. India is already facing acute water shortages. China has already anticipated its future water problems by damming the headwaters of the Sutlej and Brahmaputra. While the ‘thirsty’ provinces of Xingjian and Gansu will undoubtedly benefit by China’s plans to divert the waters of the Brahmaputra, India needs to wake up well before our rivers begin drying up.

The various reports and my growing concern about this led to this post in Apr 2008 in which I lamented how the Government appeared to be completely oblivious to the threat posed by Chinese activity.

So what does our Government do?

Nothing. It just “watches”

But then why should it do anything more? The mighty Brahma-putra does not quite leave the same imprint on national consciousness as does Ganga-Mata…and it is too far-away to bother anyways.

Besides, we don’t drink the waters of Brahmaputra, do we? So I guess it is OK if the Chinese decide to dam some of it and use it for themselves. After all, whats a little bit of water between neighbours?

Late this year, as reports of Chinese activity to build a dam across the Brahmaputra resurfaced, the PM assured Arunachal Pradesh CM that China was not building dam (across Brahmaputra) that might be “a matter of concern” for India.

…When the delegation raised the issue of Chinese incursions into the state, the Prime Minister reportedly assured them that the Centre will “tackle” the boundary question with the neighbouring country bilaterally.

“The Prime Minister told us not to worry. He said the Centre will tackle with the situation bilaterally,” said Congress MP from Arunachal West Takam Sanjoy, who was part of the delegation.

2 weeks later, on 4th Nov, Indian Express reported that remote sensing confirms China is building a Dam.

But do you think anybody is loosing sleep over this? Almost certainly not…And as for “Water Wars”, is that not something that happens on Mars?

Related Posts:

Nightmare at Noon* – What if I had no water to drink?

Now Thats What I call Music..sorry, *News*

Additional Reference: Ebb without flow: Water may be the new oil in a thirsty global economy

* With apologies to Nico Mastorakis