Open Thread on Elections 2014 – Updated Daily
Note:  This page is updated every day, sometimes several times each day. It will remain so until the declaration of results of the Lok Sabha Elections 2014. Fresh interesting/relevant/critical links will be added to the main body of this post. I will respond to your comments/ observations via the comments section.
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Dear All: I’m opening this  thread for all discussions, comments and news/articles re. the Lok Sabha 2014 elections…I shall be using the space within the original post to add interesting/relevant/critical links (placeholders below). I will respond to your comments/ observations via the comments section.
*** Relevant & Interesting Commentary, Articles, Videos, Photos ***
1. Can anyone stop Narendra Modi?” - The Economist (where I stumbled on this sentence: “Unlike other BJP leaders, Mr Modi has refused to wear a Muslim skullcap..”).  Alongside, Sanjeev Ahluwalia’s *must read* analysis of “Why did the Economist bark?”
2. Kanchan Gupta predicts that the “NaMo wave is now a TsuNaMo“
3. Pravin Patil’s provocative analysis on why might get zero or near-zero seats
4. A few tweets in the context of Assam which goes to polls tomorrow (on 10th Apr):
- As Upper Assam goes to polls tmrw, a fw startlng stats/facts. As y’ll knw, NE India has seen major demographic changes ovr lst 3 decades 1/n
- Ths elctions mght b 1st in whch u’ll c impct of possbly the largst regularisation of illegal immigrnts anywhr in wrld http://bit.ly/99cvQe
- Thnx to loose b’ground checks, many “immigrants” are now in possession of Aadhaar Cards & my hv gt Voters ID too http://j.mp/1jQVZs0
- Ths rport mentions that of the 4Lakh Bangladeshi immigrants in UP, most have gt Voter ID cards http://j.mp/1jQWbHE
- Ths is jst 1 exmple of hw “system” of regularisation wrks: 1 unnamd “leaderâ€, 1000illegal settlers & votebank poltics http://bit.ly/920gW8
- Ths un-named “leader” http://bit.ly/920gW8 *may* well be “the richest crorepati among 56 candidates in Assam” http://j.mp/1jQWsKz
- 2001 MHA estimate: “150 to 170 lakh Bangladeshi infiltrators have crossed into India illegally since 1971” http://j.mp/1jQWFxo
- In Jul 04, Home Min conceded in Parliament “out of 12,053,950 illegal infiltrators, 5,000,000..present in Assam alone http://j.mp/1jQWFxo
- Thr r complainst of abnorml rise in # of votrs in Assam in 2010 rolls – 16% compared 2 natl avg of 1.6% (see #9 here: http://bit.ly/bo0QpW
- Fw notcd emergence of AIUDF in 2011 as main Opp party. AIUDF claims to reprsnt interst of “Muslim migrants of Assam” http://j.mp/1jQXG8G
- The Election Commissionr hs publcly statd tht 1.5Lakh D-voters pose “a very serious security threat to the country” http://j.mp/1jQXWVh
5. Guess which two AAP candidates have collected the most donations (other than Arvind Kejriwal)? Soni Sori (13.87L) and Medha Patkar (11.2 L). Ex-NBA activist Alok Agarwal may be third at Rs 9L! Rachna Dhingra, who fought for survivors of the Bhopal gas disaster has 7.66L; Dayamani Barla, a journalist and tribal activist contesting from Jharkhand’s Khunti constituency has 5L. Compare this with Shazia Ilmi 1.45L and Kumar Vishwas at 8.52L. In case of Soni Sori Rs. 14 lakh came from 296 donors with the minimum amount of Rs. 100 and the maximum going up to Rs. 1 lakh (3 donors).
6. Unfortunate to see this in the AAP Manifesto: “..minimum support price for..farmers ..and ensure 50 per cent mark up to real input costs.” Thanks to Samir for pointing this out: Apparently, NaMo has promised the same thing 😐Â
7. EC says that use of social media will not be considered as part of the political campaign (News-item in Hindi: बà¥à¤²à¥‰à¤—, सोशल मीडिया पर संदेश को राजनीतिक पà¥à¤°à¤šà¤¾à¤° नहीं माना जाà¤à¤—ा).  Interesting, if true.
8. An excerpt from an article on AAP’s efforts in Varanasi.
9. Â Excerpts from AK’s interview with ET:
As for the BJP, I am confident that it will get less than 180 seats. I’ve tried all kind of permutation and combination. Mr Modi is definitely not becoming PM. The 2014 will throw up a fractured mandate and we will have re-elections in a year…
The mistake we made (in deciding to quit) was to assume that the people will celebrate our decision to quit on principle. We thought that people would understand our reasons on their own. But it did not happen. There was a communication gap and that gap was filled by BJP and Congress who told people that we ran away from responsibility.
To the question, “You had initially disagreed with your party’s stand to field as many candidates as possible in the upcoming elections. AAP has fielded close to 450 candidates. What made you change your mind?”,
AK’s response: “This is an election being fought by the people of this country. Who am I to decide how many candidates we should field?…”
..and a Freudian slip – in which he lets out that NaMo might become the PM after all:Â “BJP has lied in its manifesto. Modi is for FDI in retail and he will introduce it. Just wait and watch”
10. “…report of Association for Democratic Reforms saying that 15% of 200 candidates of AAP have criminal charges while 10 have serious criminal charges pending against them. .. (Sanjay) Singh (AAP) dismissed this charge as “politically motivated.” He said, “The cases that our candidates have against them are politically motivated. These candidates were charged when they spoke against authority or raised their voice against injustice.” [source]
11. Interesting: “…While speaking at Ahmedgarh, Kejriwal enthused masses with recitation of ‘Bharat Mata Ki Jai’ and ‘Vande Matram’…However at Malerkotla, which is the only Muslim town of Punjab, the AAP convener avoided the slogans.” [source]
12. From Election Commission: 198 confirmed cases of Paid News, more detected, “The EC has also seized more than Rs 216 crores in cash and above one crore litres of liquor across the country till date.”
13. Interesting: In the 2009 polls, 114 Lok Sabha seats were won or lost by margins of 3 per cent or less.
14. The image that does not need any words..(courtesy Amit Malviya)
15.  From The coming collapse of India’s Communists by Sadanand Dhume:
..Just how badly are the communists doing? According to Delhi’s Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, the vote share of the so-called Left Front communist alliance—which hovered near 10% for much of the 1970s and ’80s and was a respectable 8% in 2004—appears likely to fall below 5% this time. This would give the Left Front only 14 to 20 seats in India’s 543-member lower house of Parliament, about a third of the 59 they snagged 10 years ago…
Since 1989, no Third Front coalition has managed to form a government without the communists winning at least 50 seats in Parliament.
16. A contrarian view of the “wave” in Maharashtra by Neeta Kolhatkar from which this excerpt:
In the last elections, the Muslims and Dalits were not happy. They registered it by not going out to vote. This time, the number is strong and undivided.
So a high turnout does not necessarily mean that the tide reflects anti-incumbency. In my conversations with Muslim and Dalit leaders, they are immensely angry with the Congress for ‘using’ them. But they are angrier that the BJP has portrayed Modi as its candidate for prime minister.
Fear is what motivates the minorities. “It is not corruption, but destruction that we fear. We fear for our lives and the BJP has not been able to convince us otherwise,” Muslims and Dalits tell me.
17. Excellent commentary by Koenraad Elst on “Modi and the media“.
18. Ashok Malik on “What Shazia Ilmi controversy exposes about AAP”
19. Vinita Deshmukh’s unbelievable investigation of names being deleted from voters-list in Pune without due process..
20. The shocking deletion of 12% of voters from Mumbai‘s voters list.
21. From a recent Zee News report:
As to why the over a-year-old party did not wait for the 2019 general election, Kejriwal answered: “People said we should have contested 30 seats (in Lok Sabha) and gradually taken the graph higher, but that is conventional politics.Â
“Had we waited till 2019, the country would not have been there,” he said.
22. 2 separate reports mentioning that AAP is likely to win a few seats in Punjab:
The entry of AAP will change the equations on at least 7-8 seats in the state. Some of the AAP candidates like Bhagwant Mann, H.S. Phoolka and cardiologist-social activist Dharamveer Gandhi have the potential to be winners in a tight contest on their respective seats. [Busienss Standard]
and
“The momentum AAP had achieved will see it not only register a high percentage of votes but also win a few seats. [FirstPost]
23. Interesting comments by the usually elusive Ahmed Patel:
“As we near the home stretch, we are confident of scoring a clear win and inflicting the third straight defeat on BJP..”. Â (He) said that the Congress party would not flinch from making any sacrifice to keep ‘communal’ forces at bay.
24. Inside BJP’s high-tech war-room and real-time reactions by NaMo
25. Interesting analysis that claims the BJP-led NDA will not get more than 220 seats.
26. Excerpts from The Dirty Underbelly Of Election 2014:
…Starting 5 March, when the moral code of conduct came into force, the EC has seized cash and goods worth 1,110 crore meant to buy votes. That’s more than 50 percent of the cost incurred by the EC to conduct the election. If we break it down, the EC seized 13 million litres of liquor, the equivalent of 43 swimming pools or one 30ml peg for 75 percent of the 815 million registered voters in India. On top of that, it has also recovered a staggering 20.71 lakh kg of narcotics. Drugs worth as much as 550 crore were seized from Punjab alone. Despite their best efforts, it is estimated that the EC has only seized 10 percent of the total black money in circulation to buy votes.
…according to media reports, the BJP’s expenditure on advertising (across all media) alone is a staggering Rs 5,000 crore, just a bit less than the Rs 6,000 crore — roughly $1 billion — that the Barack Obama campaign cost in the 2012 US presidential election.
…(In Tamilnadu) According to mid-level party functionaries, Rs 10- Rs 20 crore had been set aside per candidate per constituency. That means that in the days leading up to poll day, over Rs 1,000 crore cash and gifts such as saris, pressure cookers, cooking vessels and liquor were distributed across the state.
…In south India, gifts and cash are distributed openly. Political parties have thought of newer, creative and inventive methods, making it almost an art form, synonymous with the flair and style of the big action movies of the region. In January 2009, in the Thirumangalam byelection in Madurai district, workers of the then ruling DMK resorted to an ingenious way to distribute the bribe money by inserting envelopes into voters’ morning newspapers. The amount of money varied according to the number of voters in each house. So successful was the effort that it has given birth to a new jargon in the election lexicon. The ‘Thirumangalam formula’ is now stuff of folklore.
As the EC develops new systems to track illegal money transfers, political parties constantly evolve out-of-the-box methods to hoodwink them. Parties route the cash through individuals and organisations, who then distribute them to the intended beneficiaries. This way, no direct link can be established with the party even if the cash is seized. Many parties have resorted to innovative methods such as distributing tiffin boxes with cash in them or paying voters’ electricity bills. In Hyderabad, money was transferred to bank accounts of Aadhaar holders by a Congress MLA, while in the Nellore district, a YSR Congress Party MLA candidate had allegedly hid 5,000 bottles of liquor worth over 5 lakh by burying them in his agricultural field. Gifts are hidden in secret locations well before an election and then distributed in the middle of the night.
…“At times political parties will call in a bogus complaint. This way, they will know where our team will be and they will distribute cash and gifts in another location,†says an EC official, reminding of ploys smugglers used to distract the police in Hindi cinema of the bygone era.
At times though, being innovative has its downside. An MLA candidate in Nalgona learnt this the hard way, when he was caught travelling with wads of cash. In an attempt to get past the security checkposts, he hid the cash in his car’s bonnet. However, due to the engine heat, the money caught fire and the emanating smoke gave him away.
…If Tamil Nadu is bad, Andhra Pradesh is on another level altogether. So far, the EC has seized over 110 crore in cash and 77 lakh litres of liquor in the state, putting it on top of the list of expenditure-sensitive states. Expectedly, the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh has given a new twist — and new incentive — to Andhra- Telangana politics. The bifurcation means that there will be a need to develop new infrastructure, a new capital, a new Assembly building, roads and Central funds. So the race is on.
In the past few months, political equations in different regions have changed drastically as parties on both the Telangana as well as the Andhra Pradesh side played the division card to suit their script. While the Congress, in the words of the party’s own members, stands to face a rout in Andhra Pradesh, its fortunes are expected to improve vastly in Telangana. In Andhra, as the favourite to reap maximum rewards, Jaganmohan Reddy is finally seeing hope of becoming the chief minister, an ambition that has been thwarted ever since he left the Congress and was subsequently imprisoned in a disproportionate assets case.
…Speaking to TEHELKA on the condition of anonymity, a Congress member from Andhra Pradesh casually mentions the figure of Rs 36 crore as the total expenditure of a Congress candidate in a particular urban seat. “There is no other way,†he explains. “Understand this; it’s a competitive market. Once someone starts it, you just have to keep up with it. I’m told we distributed Rs 11 crore yesterday in a constituency.†He then delivers the shocker. “We stand fourth in terms of expenses,†he says. “The TDP candidate from the same constituency spent Rs 103 crore, much of it in cash and alcohol. These are no elections for the meek.â€
…There seems to be an established rate card for winning elections in these states. According to media reports, the going rate for a Parliament seat is Rs 50 crore, whereas Rs 15 crore will get you into the Assembly and Rs 15 lakh will get you the post of village sarpanch. This has pushed political parties to look for richer candidates, who then look to make up their investment while in power. This leaves an electorate resigned to corruption, open to the idea of freebies.
27. From Congress plan: Stall Narendra Modi, limit Left influence if mandate is fractured:
“The best option, said Congress sources, would be for the party to lead a government even on the basis of a reduced strength even if such a course of action entails managing a difficult coalition.
…Though Congress’s elbow room will be dictated by the numbers regional parties chalk up, there is concern over Karat’s role in impacting government formation, given Left’s likely choice of regional leaders. Congress, if it has its way, will not be fully comfortable with a regional boss like Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav being touted as an acceptable choice for the prime minister’s job.
In a crunch situation, someone like Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik would be a more moderate, sober and middle of the road choice. Yet, outcomes are hard to predict and if the SP chief returns a healthy tally, it may not be easy to deny his claim to have halted the BJP in Uttar Pradesh, a credit that immediately embellishes his credentials.”
28. Interesting article that says Gandhi bastion showing signs of a breach.
29. A graphic showing contributions to Congress(I) and BJP by various corporate groups.
30. First-hand account of in your face rigging in Poschim Bengal, “Sir, how free and fair are our polls if viewed through dark glasses?“Â (Telegraph front pg, 3rd May).
31. A first-hand account of the AAP campaign in Banaras by a supporter.
32. Interesting data showing movement in the share-price index post elections..(courtesy ET)
33. A snapshot view of the latest opinion polls, courtesy ET
34. Â Interesting piece suggesting Muslims do not vote en bloc, from which this excerpt: “..survey analysis showed that Muslims were not more likely to support a party that nominated a Muslim candidate in their constituency.”
35. 2 critical articles that paint the EC in a less than flattering light: India deserves a better EC by Prof Vaidyanathan and “How EC’s multi-phased polls have created 543 Narendra Modis“
36. The FT identifies four pitfalls for Modi and the BJP:
- First, Modi could lose in Varanasi.
- Second, the BJP might struggle to secure a parliamentary majority.
- Third, the BJP’s performance could be so weak that Modi would be dropped.
- Fourth, there could be a terror attack or a resurgence of communal violence.
37. Looks like this election could see a record turnout…In the first eight phases of the 10-phase election, 66.2 percent of registered voters exercised their right to vote…That compares with the previous best turnout of 64 percent during the 1984-85 parliamentary election, when Congress leader Rajiv Gandhi rode a sympathy wave to come to power after the assassination of his mother, then prime minister Indira Gandhi.
The record is likely to be broken this year, Sanjay Kumar, director at the respected Indian polling group CSDS, told Reuters. CSDS expects a turnout of 65 percent, Kumar said….Of the 28 states and union territories that have gone to polls, 26 have recorded a higher turnout compared to the last parliamentary election, election commission data showed.
38. A shocking *must read*: On 35% non-existent voters & electoral rolls that may be “off by whopping 60%” by Anupam Saraph. Will try and post excerpts later
39. Former BJP MP Sudhindra Kulkarni feels that BJP is over-confident and may miss the 272+ mark. Â Sh Swamy claims (10th May ’14) that “BJP will be 252 after deduction 28 for EVMs. NDA will be 300”
40. In Varanasi, contrary to point #34 above, Muslim vote is reported to be solidly behind AAP.
41. Interesting graphic, courtesy ET comparing Exit Polls and Actual results from the past elections (source unverified):
42. Swaminathan Anklesaria Aiyar explains why “Even in defeat, Aam Aadmi Party still matters“
43. Interesting graphic re. number of MPs with criminal cases and average assets across different parties:
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Related Category: Elections  2009
Let this election be about electing Leaders among us and getting rid of DYNASTIES … http://www.bjp2014.org/dynasties
The Economist is holding Modi to a higher standard than others whether they be Christians or Muslims. The iron man of Germany, Bismark was not known for being anti-Jewish. But even he made no pretense when pogroms against Jews were in full swing. If Modi is complicit in the Godra carnage against Muslims, the same should apply to the billion strong Hindu population of India. How is it that in majority Hindu India, the communal clashes are instigated by minority Muslim and Christian communities whereas in the rest of the world it is the majority hosts. Hindus instead of having a zero tolerance for such deviant behaviour never drew a red line at what would be tolerated unlike what obtains in the rest of the world. It would be to the minorities good and the for the peace and tranquility of the country that a Modi government would put an end to it. The previous BJP did not quite manage that. There would have to be swift and sure justice which is not India is known for at the moment.
I have not figured out how parties and people ensure that elections with electronic voting machines handle the issue of fairness. What if someone tampers with the machine? Is there a way parties can assess the integrity of the process? I have not come across a good answer to any of these questions. Have you?
@Prakash (#3): Be prepared to be shocked:
On EVMs and some unanswered questions – Part 1 and Part 2
Oh, I see you covered the topic extensively in last episode. What do the political parties think about it? What have they been doing about it? Since there has not been any discussion of this issue in the media, I guess the media and the political parties think of this as a settled issue.. Is that the right impression?
Country needs a change for good. We need to rise above this day to day corruption. It was presumed that we saw a ray of hope in AAP, but I personally feel that it went away faster than what we could even feel that it came. I donot wish to comment on the fact who is the correct option for the country but I guess a scenario has come up that we may find a Krishna out of the existing of the new one !
Shantanu – You have every right to join or resign from a party – respect your views.
Here, I’m reacting to your Point No. 6
>>6. Unfortunate to see this in t he AAP Manifesto: “..minimum support price for..farmers ..and ensure 50 per cent mark up to real input costs.â€<<
How do you react to Modi doing the same?
Narendra Modi promises higher support price to farmers.
BJP’s PM candidate says NDA govt will rework MSP formula to include production cost plus 50% profit
http://www.livemint.com/Politics/bYMbXRsL3eYQw2Bp4iMaXI/Narendra-Modi-promises-higher-support-price-to-farmers.html
@Samir: Thanks for pointing this out to me..I was not aware..
Of course, I cannot support this stance..(and by the way, I learnt 2 days back that NaMo has called for a review of FDI – which is also wrong, I feel)..
Unfortunately, this elections looks like it is becoming a choice between the lesser evil (based on one’s personal opinion, of course) – but I guess it has always been like that?
Anyways, will edit the point #6 to include your link too..Thanks
Regarding your point 18. I am impressed with media’s success in taking the debate away from development/sadak/pani/bijli and focus it laser-like on communal issues. Almost 95% of BJP’s spokespersons and all the media commentators fall into the trap. Ashok Malik didn’t really have to write about what Shajia Ilmi said. He did. BJP people did not have to take the bait on the issue of Vadra. They did. You, too, added it as point 18. Could I know why? Do you really think it is an important issue or that what Ms. Ilmi said changes anything at all?
Will start adding the links via the comments section from now on since the main post is overloaded with 40+ links/ excerpts!
From Exit polls: Why I’m watching Bihar by Aakar Patel
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The surprise is that Modi is sweeping Bihar. It is a state the BJP has never won, a state that is well-governed according to those who track such things, and a state, if we are skeptical, whose voters fairly recently kept their faith in chief minister Nitish Kumar. How did they suddenly shift from affirmation to rejection? What happened?
I always understood the alliance between the Janata Dal (United) and the BJP as one between middle castes and upper castes, and this was visible in the names of their legislators. That meant the JDU was the larger force, something borne out by vote shares in the last two elections. For Nitish Kumar to lose in the way that he is predicted to—after expecting to benefit from rejecting Modi—is puzzling and remarkable. That is the one state I would watch on Friday.
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Apparently the total Congress spending on television networks was more than, and certainly as much as, the BJP’s. This is according to the channels themselves. That means as many Congress ads were aired as were the BJP’s.
If you find this hard to believe, and I certainly do, the answer lies in the fact that the BJP spent their money better. Their messaging was simpler, more focussed and therefore carried the tint of repetition. A great package was created and offered by Modi and, going by the opinion polls, has been bought by India.
A glimpse into the preparations for “Super Friday”..
1,000,000 counting staff, 550,000 security personnel!
From a Zee story about a survey conducted by RSS (which has been denied by its official spokesperson):
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The RSS wants the BJP to have a clear majority on its own to implement the Sangh agenda without any hindrance, but its internal survey does not see the party winning more than 226 seats; moreover, Modi will have to vacate one of the two seats, that is, if he wins from both Varanasi and Vadodara. The NDA, according to the RSS estimates, will have a tally of only 259 seats.
Sources privy to the RSS survey said the BJP will win 45 of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh and 18 out of the 40 seats in Bihar. The BJP tally in some other states is projected to be: Gujarat 21 out of 26, Rajasthan 21 out of 25, Madhya Pradesh 22 out of 29, Maharashtra 18 out of 48, Delhi 5 out of 7, Punjab 2 out of 13, Jammu and Kashmir 2 out of 6, Chhattisgarh 9 out of 11, and Goa both the seats.dnied
The remarkable story of a grassroots campaign: Meet a Modi fanatic
India has decided..and how!
For me the 2 best outcomes from today’s results are:
1] The decisive mandate for Sh Modi
2] The decisive defeat of Cong(I)..
Let us all work towards a समृदà¥à¤§, सशकà¥à¤¤, सà¥à¤¦à¥ƒà¤¶ à¤à¤¾à¤°à¤¤!
Here are a few of my tweets from earlier today…
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Tarun Gogoi is probably the sole Cong leader coming out of these results w/ grace & decency
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.@mihirssharma Serious Q: Wld u rathr hv yr MP chosen on basis of identity or ability? Othrwse why the lament abt lowest % of Muslim MPs?
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Fr those who prefer to get their results without panelists shouting over each other, ECI’s official site http://eciresults.nic.in/
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Prashant Bhushan is reading my tweets! On @ndtv jst listed “campaign finance reforms” & proportional representation as 2 thing we nd soon
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Expect voices for “proportional representation” to grow in the coming days…
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I thnk I’ve already watched more of @ndtv today thn all of last 3 years combined. What fun!
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The one guy I am feeling really sorry for today is @DrKumarVishwas The guy really did sweat it out in Amethi
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Priceless Quotes 2/n: “The result is a matter of concern since progressive parties have won less than 70 seats” Zoya Hasan on @ndtv
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The one electoral ‘reform” tht I really hope we see before 2019 is state funding of elections..
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Did you know 85% of candidates lost their deposit money in 2009 elections? http://j.mp/1gu3tlX
New York Times Square displaying vote counting on the screens pic.twitter.com/ktSpTG2H57
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Pricelss quotes of the Day (1/n): ‘Will b a constructive Oppn, diametrically opposite to BJP” Ragini Nayak.
Some more tweets:
Ths probably takes the cake as far as Dirty Tricks go: “Ajit Jogi clones 11 rivals in Mahasamund” bt still loses http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/ajit-jogi-lead-over-11-chandu-lal-sahus-in-mahasamund-lok-sabha-results/1/362154.html …
@ lst 3 wise men predctd a 300+ fr NDA: @yogrishiramdev @Swamy39 & @TodaysChanakya Any1 I’m missing?
Listening to @narendramodi. His transformation frm a politician to a statesman appears complete
Not to be missed: “Intellectuals On NaMo” http://j.mp/RHKwR7 (LT @RMantri)
Best News of the Day: Better-half (ultra-nationalist, JanmaBhumi actvst) is ecstatic & has finally pardoned me fr the ‘sin’ of joining AAP!
An unwitting glimpse into the arcane art of campaign financing:
“(In UP) All booth committees were given Bolero jeeps to ensure that they remain in the field.” [source]
Apparently AAP candidates lost their deposit (received less than a sixth of the total votes polled) in all but 17 constituencies (417/434). I am trying to ascertain the source.
Excerpts from Tectonic shift: How the BJP stole Congress’ thunder by Sanjay Kumar, New Delhi, May 17, 2014:
<i….
…is it not fair to say that through his massive campaigns, Narendra Modi managed to create a wave?
…
The surge in rural India was possible due to sizeable shift amongst the voters belonging to the Other Backward Castes (OBC) and the Dalits. Though sections of OBC voters did vote for regional parties, like the Yadavs of the RJD in Bihar and Samajwadi Party in UP, their share has been much lower compared to past elections.
These elections witnessed a shift in Yadav votes both in UP and Bihar. In many other states, OBC voters went for the BJP. Estimates suggest, at the national level, 45% of lower OBCs voted for the BJP, while 33% upper OBCs voted for the party. The party that hardly got Dalit votes managed to make good inroads into their vote bank. At the national level, the BJP, with more than 26% Dalit votes polled, received more support amongst the Dalits as compared to any other party, more than the BSP, which got less than 20% votes amongst the Dalits at the national level.
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Apart from a rural surge, a shift among the OBCs, Dalits and young voters, what helped the BJP hugely was its big consolidation amongst its traditional voters. It got nearly 60% of the upper castes votes, an unprecedented consolidation, as even during the 1998 and 1999 elections, less than 50% of the upper castes had voted for it.
The cabinet formation should represent India in full flow from the various cultural and regional diversities. Will the BJP govt have a mulism and a christian representation in the same way various other caste combinations get representation? This representation is no symbolism but will show the fabric of the country is intact and together all the sections of the community can move forward with one goal of development.
Though BJP has no muslim or christian candidate who has won elections they have eminent personalities such as MJ Akbar who joined them recently – and also cabinet formation is the prerogative of the PM of India he can include any eminent and qualified person of all sections of the community in his team. Will he do it?
Thanks Ashwin.. This debate started with my tweet to Sudhindra Kulkarni:
.@SudheenKulkarni Sir, Surprised/shocked 2see you falling fr “fair representation†argument. Do you really wnt communal quotas in LS?
I had sent a tweet somewhat related to this yesterday to 2 journalists too (re. their pieces suggesting something similar):
.@mihirssharma @iftikhargilani I am keen to knw if you support/reject population % based representation in Armed Forces, or Judiciary?
There are 2 fundamental problems with his (Sh Kulkarni & others) argument. One, it assumes only Muslim MPs can represent Muslims in India and two, other MPs (non-Muslims) will only look after the interest of their own co-religionists (which is why my tweet to Sh Kulkarni and my assertion in the tweet to you that “(this is an )Extremely dangerous argumnt tht insults Muslims as well as MPs who’ve bn electd by popular mndate.”
Now to your comment..
You say, “The cabinet formation should represent India in full flow from the various cultural and regional diversities.“. I disagree.
The Cabinet is the final decision-making body in our system. It must certainly take into account all views and opinions but it does not have to represent the full flow of “cultural and religious diversities”.
Just to put the record straight, my logic holds for all other identities (other than religion too). For example, I don’t care if the Cabinet does not have any representation of Maharashtrian Brahmins from Madhya Pradesh.
I cannot speak for what PM or BJP will or will not do. I am neither a member nor in any position to influence.
Hope this clarifies. Thanks.
On a completely unrelated note, do you support RG & SG resigning to take responsibility for Cong(I)’s performance in elections? Do you believe Cong(I) will be better off without them?
Some tweets from political pundits before the results were out: https://storify.com/c_aashish/best-political-experts-in-india
From Divided, Muslim vote withers by Zia Haq , Hindustan Times New Delhi, May 16, 2014:
…Post-poll voting patterns show a clear Hindi-Muslim divide. Initial post-poll survey data from the Centre for Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), the only one available for voting by religion, indicates that the BJP may have got around 9% of Muslim votes, while the Congress got 43%.
According to the CSDS National Election Study data, the BJP had secured 5% Muslim votes in 1998, 6% in 1999, 7% in 2004 before falling to 4% in 2009.
In the absence of any existential threat to their identity, Muslims tend to vote on bread-and-butter issues. The 2014 elections presented an unprecedented dilemma for the so-called Muslim voter: he had to stop the unstoppable Narendra Modi.
It was widely assumed that Muslims would vote for the party that could defeat the BJP (but) their votes got highly fragmented.
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Faced with a massive consolidation in favour of the BJP across social groups, Muslims had little legroom to exercise their mandate in any meaningful way. For example, in UP, the BJP won in all 25 seats where Muslims constituted 25% or more, barring one (Badaun, won by the SP). It is unlikely that they voted for the BJP in these seats.
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This picture of confusion in UP stands in stark contrast to Bihar, where Muslims saw the RJD-Congress as a clear alternative. This enabled them to leverage their voting power somewhat and contain the BJP’s expansion.
The BJP got displaced in three of the five seats it had won in Muslim-dominated northeast Bihar in 2009. This time, the RJD won two seats here, while JD(U), Congress and NCP won one each.
@Shantanu – your assumption in itself is wrong. It is not about others can#t represent Muslims better. India’s 195 population is muslims, dont you think there is hardly one or two who can be co-opted in the cabinet? they would be much better than the rest who Modi needs to accommodate from his MPs. The issue is not about symbolism but about proper representation as India is a multi-cultural society.
A good analogy would be is why do women prefer to show to a lady gynecologist? Not that there are no good men who are in the profession, but its easier to relate and identify with.
Your logic falls flat in real politics – hence i said its your naive engagement with politics.
I do support that they should offer to resign – i am not yet the member of Cong party. but it is for the party members to decide what is best for them. As i have long said Cong party needs Nehru-Gandhi family more than the family needs Cong – at least this was true to date, in future i think Nehru-Gandhi family will let other leaders come to the fore and there will be mutual and happy co-existence. India needs a opposition which is centrist political and economical ideology and a liberal social ideology.
Ashwin: “Your logic falls flat in real politics – hence i said its your naive engagement with politics.”.
If I was a believer in real-politik, I would hve been doing something else than all the outreach efforts over last 6 years (and this blog which is now almost a decade old)..I am sure you know that..
As for “naive”, well better that than support something I don’t believe in.
P.S. Stepping out now. So may be delayed in responding. Thanks
Btw, “India’s 195 population is muslims, dont you think there is hardly one or two who can be co-opted in the cabinet?” , is precisely the kind of bad logic I am trying to counter (because there are X of them, we need to co-opt them). A good MP will co-opt ALL. As will a good CM and PM. Period (and Modi has shown it in Gujarat).
OK, really got to go now…
Apparently Soni Sori who had raised the maximum amount of funds (other than AK; pl see point #5 in the original post) only got 16903 votes in Bastar.
The amount she had raised for the campaign was approx. Rs 13.87L.
From BJP’s 31% lowest vote share of any party to win majority, TNN | May 19, 2014:
…no party has ever before won more than half the seats with a vote share of just 31%. Indeed, the previous lowest vote share for a single-party majority was in 1967, when the Congress won 283 out of 520 seats with 40.8% of the total valid votes polled.
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Those who picked the Congress or its allies were even fewer, less than one in five for the Congress with a 19.3% vote share (which incidentally is higher than the BJP’s 18.5% in 2009) and less than one in every four for the UPA. Unfortunately for the Congress, its 19.3% votes only translated into 44 seats while BJP’s 18.5% had fetched it 116 seats.
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Is the 38.5% vote share for the NDA the lowest any ruling coalition has ever obtained? Not quite. The parties that constituted UPA-1 had just 35.9% of votes polled and the Congress won just 38.2% of the votes in 1991, when it ran a minority government under P V Narasimha Rao.
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In 1989, the National Front, consisting of the Janata Dal, DMK, TDP and Congress (S) won 146 seats and a vote share of 23.8%. To this was added the 85 seats and 11.4% of the BJP and the 52 seats and 10.2% of the Left, taking the total including those supporting from outside to 283 seats and 45.3% of the votes.
In 2004, parties in the pre-poll alliance stitched up by the Congress had 220 seats and just under 36% of the votes. But the UPA then got outside support from the Left, SP and PDP, which between them had 100 seats and about 11.2% vote share. Thus, UPA-1 was formed with the support of 320 MPs and about 47% of votes.
From India’s ‘black swan’ election by Praveen Chakravarty, May 20, 2014:
…Of the 18 largest states that account for 95 per cent of all seats in the Lok Sabha, seven states can be classified as non-Hindi speaking states in the south and east – Assam, West Bengal, Odisha, the erstwhile united Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Kerala. These states account for 40 per cent of all seats and there are dominant regional political parties in six of these seven states. Eleven states – Uttar Pradesh (UP), Bihar, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Jharkhand, Punjab, Chhattisgarh, Haryana and Delhi, accounting for the remaining 55 per cent of seats are characterised loosely as “Hindi states” for the purposes of this analysis.
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And the Modi-led NDA won 85 per cent of its total tally of seats from these “Hindi states”. The last time a political party won a general election driven principally by wins in these states was the Janata Party’s landslide victory in the 1977 anti-Emergency election, when it won 80 per cent of all its seats from these states. On average, over the last 11 general elections in 40 years, the winning alliance has won 60 per cent of its seats from the Hindi states and 40 per cent from the non-Hindi states. The extent of dominance of the BJP in the Hindi states in this election is unprecedented, as shown in Figure 1.
Further, the Modi-led NDA won nearly 88 per cent of all seats in the “Hindi states” and 23 per cent of all seats in the “non-Hindi” states. This winning percentage gap (65 percentage points) between the Hindi states and the non-Hindi states is the highest in Indian electoral history,
…This “black swan” victory has understandably piqued the curiosity of many who have sought to explain this victory in sociological terms of “preferences of a new aspirational India”, “triumph of development over caste politics”, “youth vote for change” and so on. And while vote-share analysis confirms that Modi may have successfully nationalised the election, the difference in seats won by the BJP between these states reaffirms that India still has strong regional voting preferences and concepts of a “youth vote” or a “issue-based vote” are still merely unproven theories.
From Blinded By Ideology by Jakob De Roover, 19 May 2014:
…From The Guardian to The Economist, Modi has been depicted as a Hindu fanatic who bodes ill for India. After the BJP’s victory, many comments took an ugly turn. One piece on the Guardian’s website carries the following title: ‘NarendraModi and the BJP bludgeoned their way to election victory’. A cartoon depicts a victorious Modi surfing on a landslide with a dark cloud looming over him that says ‘Gujarat riots’. In France, the leading newspaper Le Monde writes that one only has to observe the conduct of this ‘corpulent Hindu extremist’ in order to realize that ‘something very troubling is about to happen in India’.
We find few attempts by European commentators to understand why Indian citizens voted for the BJP in such great numbers. Instead, they characterize these Indians as an irrational mob that has let its dream of economic growth and a shining India override all ethical considerations.
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Sadly, the average educated European is informed exclusively by one section of Indian society: the intellectuals and journalists who call themselves ‘secular’ and ‘progressive’. Now, this group is a product of centuries of colonial education and western hegemony. They preach old colonial stories about the moral corruption of India. This explains why they are so popular among western academics and journalists: these ‘native informants’ happily reproduce what the West has always thought about India and confirm the unscientific commonplaces about ‘Hinduism’ and ‘the caste system’ that are still sold as knowledge in western universities.
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This does not mean that the BJP’s election victory is a victory for Hindu nationalism. On the one hand, it is a vote for more economic growth and better governance, after a series of corruption scandals in the Congress party. On the other hand, it reflects the voice of a people emancipating itself from a colonial inferiority complex and wishing to rediscover its cultural strengths…
Interesting observation from Is coalition era over in India? Well, ‘Modi vs Nitish’ story will decide that:
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The performance of the Modi government in the next five years will be challenged by the old school of applied politics in India and the winner of this tussle will determine the future of coalition politics in this country.
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Now, the future of coalition politics in India will be decided by the victory of either of the two contradictory styles of Modi and Kumar. Just like the magic he produced in the Lok Sabha election by achieving a kind of electoral homogenization in states like UP and Bihar where the socio-economic forces are extremely complicated, if Modi can repeat the same in terms of economic development, then coalition politics as a negative trait of our democracy can be dealt with decisively.
Linking my fb update here, for the record:
From a ToI blog post of Dec 2012, just after Modi’s vistory in Gujarat assembly elections:
…According to RNB Research, which provided exit poll analysis under the name of Todays Chanakya to our sister channel Times Now, as also News24 and ETV News, 21 per cent of Muslims in the state voted for BJP. To anyone who knows the perceived hatred that the Muslims have for Modi, this number is astounding. The research firm, however, has an explanation.
Muslim voters have also given their support to Narendra Modi. Most of such voters have rendered their support due to:
Development work in state.
Peace & Harmony maintained in state over the last few years.
May be early days yet, but I would assume that what is good for Gujarat is good for the rest of the country too…
Basically, what I am saying is that Narendra Modi will be good for the Muslims of this country.
A glimpse into the machinery that powered the Modi campaign…From Narendra Modi rode wave of money to Indian victory by Amy Kazmin:
…the technology that permitted Gujarat’s chief minister to simultaneously address 100 rallies – in the form of a 10-feet-tall hologram – while images of the crowd were beamed back to him at the BJP’s Ahmedabad offices cannot have come cheap.
Nor could the scores of trucks and buses – and the army of nearly 4,000 workers – required to move and install the satellite dishes and projectors at one remote site after another.
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Advertising industry executives estimate the BJP spent at least $500m on traditional media advertising alone. A member of Citizens for Accountable Governance, which helped run Mr Modi’s campaign, says the campaign spent around $670m over eight months. Others say the true spend is probably far higher. A BJP spokeswoman was unable to provide any official estimate at all.
I am keen to see links that mention any other figures on spending in these elections..If you come across these, pl do post them as a comment here. Thanks
Interesting read: Decoding Lok Sabha numbers: Why Kejriwal apology won’t win Delhi.
Excerpt from Delhi’s opiated intellectuals:
…This is not the first election in which the forecast results have veered off the actual tally; this is seen in most elections. What stands out this time is the inability of this class to come to terms with the results. Instead of accepting a forecasting error, this class is busy proffering justifications that are ideologically motivated. Three are doing the rounds these days. One, that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) received just 31% of the vote share and that 69% of those who cast the vote did not favour the BJP. Two, the first past the post system (FPTP), in which the winner in a poll does not necessarily receive the majority of the vote, is inherently unfair. Three, over time, governments in India have become increasingly unrepresentative as they are formed on the back of legislative groups that command dwindling vote shares.
What cannot be denied is that of all the contesting parties the BJP has the highest number of seats and the highest vote share. And that is what matters in a democracy.
Interesting argument from Why Modi’s mandate is larger than you think: more like 40% by R Jagannathan May 23, 2014:
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Raju Limbachiya, a Modi supporter, has done some painstaking number-crunching to prove that Modi’s direct vote share is actually far higher than his 31 percent suggests – and possibly closer to 40 percent overall. Reason: the 31 percent relates to BJP votes in the whole country, when it actually fought only 428 seats. If we take the BJP’s vote share in the seats it contested, the party’s figure is closer to 40 percent on an average.
My own numbers (drawn from the Election Commission website) show that Modi got more than 50 percent of the vote in six states (Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Himachal, Uttarakhand, and Goa), 50 percent (along with allies) in one more state (Maharashtra), over 40 percent in five states (UP, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Jharkhand, and Karnataka), and over (or near) 30 percent in four states (Bihar, Haryana, Assam, and – yes – even Jammu & Kashmir). Outside the tiny states, the BJP scored below par in only Andhra Pradesh (where ally TDP did the honours), Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Kerala. It may surprise people to know that the BJP is the party with the biggest vote share even in J&K with 32.4 percent, though one must admit that this is because the vote in Jammu was far higher than in the Kashmir Valley. Raju Limbachiya’s numbers are more telling. They show (see table 2) how strong the BJP’s mandate has been in the seats it won, especially since the party contested only 428 seats. In 29 seats (see table 1), the BJP simply overwhelmed its rivals by winning 60 percent of the vote. In 139 seats (including the 29 above), it was a clear voter choice winning 50 percent or more of the vote. In 251 constituencies, it got more than 40 percent – a benchmark in most multi-party democracies. The interesting point is that even with 40 percent, the BJP lost 10 seats. In seats where the BJP got 30 percent or more, the BJP won 282 (its final seat tally) – and lost 36 seats. In high polling constituencies, where more than 10 lakh votes were polled, the BJP won 153 seats of the 242 seats (see Table 2).
In medium polling seats (total votes of 5-10 lakh votes), the BJP won 121 of 172 seats contested. In other words, the BJP won a larger share in a larger voter base.
The conclusion is clear: in the seats it contested, the BJP polled around 40 percent of the vote
From “Did AAP spread itself too thin?” by BV Rao:
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The AAP polled 1,13,25,635 votes across India for a 2% vote share and 11th position out of 40-plus parties.
Twenty candidates returned 60,95,949 votes (54%) from just two places: Punjab (33,73,062) and Delhi (27,22,887). This means that the rest of the 412 candidates polled only 52,29,686 votes or 12,693 votes on an average per candidate. This is the most humbling statistic for the AAP.
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Kejriwal’s AAP is the most audacious experiment in political engineering in a long time. In the solitude of Tihar jail, one hopes Kejriwal comes up with a future plan that will have elements to it other than the villains (everybody and everything) and victims (Kejriwal and team) narrative. In the country and his own party, there’s fatigue for small-time drama.
An illustration of the Modi Effect in LS ’14 elections