This weekend, worrying about Assam

Many of you may have read Nitin’s recent article in Yahoo! India on an unusual approach to deal with the matter of illegal immigration from Bangladesh. As he noted, the problem is old…and a real threat to national security…(emphasis added)

“Probably the most important event in (Assam) during the last 25 years — an event, moreover, which seems likely to alter permanently the whole future of Assam and the whole structure of Assamese culture and civilization — has been the invasion of a vast horde of land-hungry Bengali immigrants, mostly Muslims, from the districts of (Bangladesh)” You might think I am quoting a contemporary BJP leader. These are, in fact, words of C S Mullan, census commissioner under the British Raj. He made these comments in 1931. If you thought that the issue of “illegal immigrants from Bangladesh” is a recent one, then think again.

Demographic change in the erstwhile Assam province in the first half of the twentieth century was at the heart of the Muslim League’s demand, in the 1940s, that the territory be given to Pakistan. So those who argue that large-scale immigration from Bangladesh is one of the biggest long-term threats to India’s national security are right.

Unfortunately, there are certain issues with the “work-permits” idea that he has broached. For one, his optimism about the “politics” of the matter may be misplaced. Instead of gaining from a “solution”  to this issue, Congress’ fortunes may actually suffer if/when the Assamese realise the extent and magnitude of the problem. And I dont think offering work-permits adds any more credibility to the BJP’s demand for repatriation of illegal migrants. More importantly, he appears to miss the critical “vote-bank” that this group represents. It is not an exxageration to say that in several constituencies in Assam (particularly along the border), this group is the effective “King-maker”.

The other challenge is in the “other half of the solution”. Nitin suggests (rightly) that the scheme will only be effective if an accurate record of Indian citizens is maintained.

The other half involves the ability to positively identity an Indian citizen. This is where Aadhaar, the Indian UID, launched last month…

That said, I am pretty certain he realises that UID is not about citizenship – it is more about establishing an “identity” – and to the best of my knowledge, it is going to be based on the National Population Register. The population register is not the same as a record of citizens (or citizenship) and it would therefore be wrong and misleading to use that as  the basis for establishing citizenship (the fact that this is exactly what is very likely to happen is  a topic for a separate discussion).

Which begs the question, are work-permits still a good idea? I tend to think so…but I am keen to hear others’ views too…

The post also prompted me to dig into my archives for these three articles from a while ago. They are enough to make you worried about Assam this weekend…Brief excerpts below. The first from Assam: Demographic Jitters by Wasbir Hussain (Associate Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management, New Delhi; Consulting Editor, The Sentinel, Guwahati; emphasis added):

…The 2001 Census put Assam’s population at 26,655,528. Of this, 17,296,455 were recorded as Hindus and 8,240,611 Muslims. Among the critical elements made public by the Census authorities is the fact that six of Assam’s 27 districts have a majority Muslim population. The district of Barpeta tops the list with 977,943 Muslims and 662,066 Hindus. The other five districts where Muslims constitute a majority: Dhubri, Goalpara, Nagaon, Karimganj and Hailakandi.

The issue of Muslim population growth in Assam has a disturbing resonance. The State has long been in the grip of a murky politics of citizenship over the issue of unabated illegal migration from adjoining Bangladesh, with which it shares a 262 kilometre long border. The particular significance of the recently released Census data is the fact that the rates of growth of Muslim populations are the highest precisely in the districts that share a border with, or lie close to the border with, Bangladesh – particularly Dhubri, Barpeta, Karimganj and Hailakandi – giving credence to the widely held belief that illegal migration from Bangladesh was the source of these demographic trends. Such migration clearly continues unhindered, despite the barbed-wire fence being erected in stretches and the presence of the Border Security Force (BSF) along the border.

A look at the census figures of 1971 and 1991 (there was no census in Assam in 1981 due to unrest in the State) shows that there has been a steady to rapid rise in the Muslim population in districts proximate to the border, confirming apprehensions of a continuing illegal influx. This, perhaps, goes a long way to explain the rather high Muslim growth rate in Assam, estimated at 77.42 per cent between 1971 and 1991.

…The population explosion in Bangladesh, with 2.8 million added every year in one of the poorest and most densely populated countries in the world, creates the push factors for this silent demographic invasion. These are, however, compounded by an expansionist political ideology, implicitly or explicitly supported in the corridors of power in Bangladesh: the idea of Lebensraum (‘living space’), which has been variously projected by the country’s leadership for a long time, though the use of the expression itself is relatively recent.

…In November 1998, the then Governor of Assam, Lt. Gen. (Retd) S.K.Sinha presented a 42-page official report to the President of India on ‘Illegal Migration into Assam,’ noting:

As a result of population movement from Bangladesh, the spectre looms large of the indigenous people of Assam being reduced to a minority in their home state… This silent and invidious demographic invasion of Assam may result in the loss of the geo-strategically vital districts of Lower Assam [on the border with Bangladesh]. The influx of these illegal migrants is turning these districts into a Muslim majority region. It will then only be a matter of time when a demand for their merger with Bangladesh may be made…

If current trends of inflow of population continue unchecked, the security implications, not only for Assam, but for the entire Northeast region, could be disastrous.

From another article by Wasbir Hussain, some more startling facts, “The Muslim Factor in Assam Politics”:

Muslims comprise 30.9 per cent of Assam’s 26.6 million people. Six of the State’s 27 districts have a Muslim majority population and the community is believed to control the electoral verdict in 60 of Assam’s 126 Assembly constituencies.

…the fact remains that Muslims are a key factor in Assam’s electoral politics. Therefore, even the AGP, which had earlier collaborated with the BJP in the State elections, held a ‘religious minority convention’ in Guwahati in March 2005. The conclave had decided to form a ‘religious minority cell’ to work for the socio-economic upliftment of the “comparatively backward religious minorities” in the State.

…There is need, however, to make a clear distinction between the indigenous Assamese-speaking Muslims and Bangladeshi migrants before analyzing the demographic, security or political implications of such population growth. The growth rate of Muslims in districts far from the Bangladesh border varied between 30 and 50 per cent (1971-1991) while it was more than 60 per cent during the same period in areas bordering Bangladesh. Therefore, when one talks of Muslim vote bank and so on in Assam, one is actually talking about the role of the settlers and not necessarily that of the indigenous Assamese-speaking Muslims. This point is often missed.

And finally some historical context to this issue that has roots in British pre-independence policies. Excerpts from India’s north-east: target of British Apartheid by Ramtanu Maitra & Susan Maitra, published in 1995 – but still relevant (emphasis added):

Continuing terrorist actions and violent demonstrations over the last five decades have turned India’s North-east into a dangerous place. Large-scale introduction of narcotics and arms from neighboring Myanmar (Burma) and China has made this strategically crucial area a potential theatre of violent secessionist movements.

…both New Delhi and the residents of north-east India are marching recklessly along the very path prescribed by the British Raj in 1862, when it laid down the law of apartheid to isolate “the tribals.” While it is not clear how long this fateful road is, there is little doubt what awaits them at the end.

…Assam has been cut up into many states since Britain’s exit. The autonomous regions of Karbi Anglong, Bodo Autonomous Region, and Meghalaya were all part of pre-independence Assam. Citing the influx of Bengali Muslims since the 1947 formation of East Pakistan, which became Bangladesh in 1971, the locals demand the ouster of these “foreigners” from their soil. Two violent movements in Assam, the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) and the Bodo Security Force (BdSF), are now practically demanding “ethnic cleansing” in their respective areas.To fund their movements, both the ULFA and the BdSF have been trafficking heroin and other narcotics, and indulging in killing sprees against other ethnic groups and against Delhi’s law-and-order machinery. Both these groups have also developed close links with other major guerrilla-terrorist groups operating in the area, including the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Muivah) and the People’s Liberation Army in Manipur.

Assam, unlike most other areas of the north-east, was better integrated with mainstream India prior to independence; Assam participated in the national independence movement and contributed much to India’s intellectual and cultural wealth. Today, however, instead of encouraging its sons and daughters to train themselves in science and technology, and entrepreneurship, Assam has engulfed itself in mindless bloodletting.

…The root cause of the problem is the conditions set in place by British rule in the north-east since 1826 and the formation of East Pakistan in 1947. New Delhi’s inability to integrate the region stems from its failure to recognize that the British Raj had converted north-east India into a human zoo, where each tribe was allowed to roam free within its “own territory,” but was not allowed to cross the boundaries set forth by their British masters and establish contact with the rest of India.

…In 1838, the East India Company assumed charge of the government of Assam, in order to enhance trade and commerce, and sacked the Ahom king, who had been its “protected prince” since 1826. In the early years, the company had often run into trouble with the tribals, and clashes between the two were routinely reported.The decision to isolate the tribals came about in 1873 through the promulgation of the Bengal Eastern Frontier Regulation. However, the policy of declaring the North-east Frontier Agency (NEFA) a secluded area had been advocated long before. Section 2 of the regulation empowered the company “to prescribe and from time to time alter by notification, a line to be called the Inner Line and to prohibit any subject living outside the area from living or moving therein.” Thus, the British policy of apartheid in north-east India was implemented in the tribal area of the District of Lakhimpur in September 1875, and in the District of Darrang in March 1876.

…Soon enough, the British Crown introduced two other features – proselytization of Christianity among the tribal population and recruiting units of the Frontier Constabulary. The Land of the Nagas was identified as “virgin soil” for planting Christianity. “Among a people so thoroughly primitive, and so independent of religious profession, we might reasonably expect missionary zeal would be most successful,” according to the 1875 document, as quoted in the Descriptive Account of Assam, by William Robinson and Angus Hamilton. Missionaries were encouraged to open government-aided schools in the Naga Hills.Between 1891 and 1901, the number of native Christians increased 128%. The chief proselytizers were the Welsh Presbyterians, headquartered in Khasi and the Jaintia Hills. British Baptists were given the franchise of the Mizo (Lushai) and Naga Hills, and the Baptist mission was set up in 1836.

…By the time the nineteenth century came to an end, the British were deeply involved in the “Great Game.” At this point, north-east India became the theatre of a new gambit. The British plan was to set up a buffer state between China-Central Asia-Russia, and British India. The British split Bengal and joined part of it to sparsely populated Assam, in order to form a Muslim-majority state as the western flank of the buffer state.

…The ultimate apartheid in the North-east came with the partition of India and the formation of East Pakistan, which in 1971 became the independent nation of Bangladesh. With the partition of Bengal, North-east India became practically isolated, connected to the mainland through a narrow corridor running between Nepal and Bangladesh. The southern North-eastern states have no railroads and are accessible from the mainland by road, air, and sea. There is no railroad in Tripura, Mizoram, Meghalaya, Manipur, Nagaland, and Arunachal Pradesh.

Thoughts and comments, welcome as always – particularly on the work-permit idea.

Related Posts:  Notes from North-East: Indigenous Cultures, Demographic Invasion

Islamisation of north-east is now a real threat…

Somewhat Related: Looting, Clashes, Sec 144, Flag March: The Curious Incident in Deganga