The path to becoming a “super-power”
I recently came across this excellent article by Capt Bharat Verma on How India can acquire great power status. Unfortunately, knowing the way our politicians thinks and our system works, this analysis is likely to pass un-noticed and ignored by the powers that be.
This inability (or unwillingness) to think strategically is one of our leadership’s biggest weaknesses – and we are paying for it – dearly.
Excerpts below (emphasis mine):
“Due to New Delhi’s slavish use of ‘carrot’ since Independence, without any equilibrium with the ‘stick’, the great power potential of India lies in tatters.
Between Naxals in the Red Corridor, border states particularly Jammu and Kashmir and the Northeast, New Delhi’s writ barely runs in fifty per cent of its territory.
This lopsided use of ‘carrot’ has emboldened neighboring countries like China, Nepal (Maoists), Pakistan, and Bangladesh to execute a sly rollback of the Indian Union on its borders through ingress, territorial claims, occupation of Indian territory, infiltration, export of Islamic terrorism and demographic assault.
Simultaneous shrinking of influence without and within is sowing seeds of disintegration of the Union.
India has clear potential of achieving great power status. Unlike the negative demographic young profile in its neighbourhood, it boasts of a highly skilled young population. Its geographical location and the size lend it the advantages of both, a continental as well as maritime power which, make it possible for New Delhi to impact and influence West Asia, Southeast Asia and the Central Asia.
However, this is only possible if instead of being an inward looking nation, New Delhi’s footprints extend outwards. Â Inward looking entities tend to wither away as their influence shrinks. This in particular is true of India that faces a 14,000 km wall (on its land frontiers) of fundamentalist/ authoritarian regimes.
Despite India’s geographical location and human resources bestowing on it all the advantages it continues to waste its potential of achieving a great power status due to skewed policy making, indecision and inconsistency.
To be a great power, Indian aim should be to establish its preponderance over Asia.
Broadly, this requires three decisive steps.
First, set its house in order.
Second, develop political, economic, military, and technological dominance in the vicinity.
Third, create international alliances without forming a formal block, based on the age-old principal of ‘enemy’s enemy is a friend’. (E.g. see this post: The �Raja-Mandala� approach to containing�Pakistan)
New Delhi and the state capitals must ruthlessly endeavour to recover territories lost internally to Naxals; mafias in the crime corridor; and terrorists and insurgents in its borders areas. In other words, the government’s writ and influence through transparent and fair governance must fan outwards to recover the lost territories within.
To recover internal territory from the non-state actors, New Delhi will have to learn to force development down the throat at gunpoint in Naxal affected and border areas.
..policing has to be beefed up, modernised, well paid, just, firm, and apolitical. This is one institution that needs transformation in its entirety, if the waning writ of the state has to be restored.
Similarly, consolidate and integrate the Union instead of dividing and compartmentalising it for the sake of vote bank politics. It is amazing that in a globalised world, an Indian needs an inner line permit to visit certain parts of his own country. He is refused permission to buy property and settle down in various locations. But the Islamic terrorist from across the border freely parks himself in border areas, merrily changes the demography with impunity, and establishes terrorist training camps in Karnataka’s forests!
New Delhi fiddles while the Union continues to sink under the weight of Islamic terrorism and strident territorial claim by China.
Sixty years of doling out ‘carrots’ leaves India pretty much alone, with even Nepal increasingly falling into the hands of Maoists who are in cahoots with the Chinese.
Surrounded by an array of adversaries, therefore, the key question for New Delhi is how to ‘outgun’ them? How about developing a large ‘stick’?
Let me spell out as to what is likely to happen if we do not. Beijing will continue to instigate and boost countries like Pakistan to subvert India. While China may not attack India initially, it will subvert our vicinity by gaining leverage over Bhutan and Nepal besides the other surrogates with whom it enjoys a special relationship already.
Finally, it will aim for the jugular — the Northeast, and will be willing to share a portion of it with Bangladesh to end India’s writ in its entirety beyond the Siliguri corridor. After that Bhutan and Nepal will be at its mercy.
If Beijing can gain its objectives through asymmetric warfare, then there is little need for an intelligent nation to wage conventional war. The Chinese call this a peaceful rise!
If we are farsighted, New Delhi can counter Beijing. The collapse of Pakistan is almost certain. (see e.g. this post which looks at the possibility of Balkanization of Pakistan).
India should ensure that China’s proxy Pakistan disintegrates.
This handicaps China by taking away one of its arms out of the two, the other being North Korea.
The build up towards the collapse of Pakistan should see New Delhi initiating moves to deny Gawdar port facilities to China by leveraging existing its goodwill in Baluchistan. Simultaneously, it needs to work towards opening up of routes to Central Asia.
Methodology to widen the narrow 8 to 21-km-wide and 200-km-long Siliguri corridor to at least 150 km on either side also needs to be worked out. The air force should attain lethal reach so that it is able to damage the new railway line to Tibet and thus deny the vital supply line in case of war.
India must sign the Indo-US nuclear deal. The deal’s lateral spin offs to strengthen India’s political, economic, and military positions in Asia are immense.
The deteriorating standards of the military, both in terms of human resources and equipment, require to be reversed.
In fact, the increasing security threats dictate that the military power apart from being lean and mean should be enhanced by another fifty per cent.
The shortfall of young officers who provide the cutting edge in war and the ageing profile of commanding officers can be checkmated by simple decisive measures.
New Delhi should encourage short service commissioned officers tenure of seven years, with a gratuity packet at the end of Rs 25 lakhs, two years post graduation facility in any university in the world at government cost, guaranteed lateral induction with assured service seniority into police, para-military forces and the civil administration etc. This artificial shortage will disappear.
It is also time that we created a strategic affairs cell in the defence ministry.
***
Capt. Bharat Verma is the Editor, Indian Defence Review.
Suggested Reading:”The Indian Fault Line” by Capt Verma from which I have extracted this graphic (thought-provoking)
Santhanu, thanks for posting this. I wanted to read the article when it appeared else where but spaced it…
Dear Sir,
The article was an eyeopener and very heartwarming.
A few matters kept crossing my mind when I went thru it and I thought fit that I should put it in writing.
Instead of offering a short service commission, the Government should see to that every Indian goes thru a period of military service. May be not war but places where they can be made to understand dicipline and the value of sacrifice.
The youth in India are lead astray mainly by these Movies and they should be dissuaded by offering ‘Carrots’ as an exception. The carrots could be full and free education for them if they join the services and be there for a minimum of say five years after the 12th. standard.
I am making a small deviation as regards, the five years short service commission in this case.
If they are given to recogonise their importance as persons I am sure we will end up with a better opportunity of getting this country to greater levels.
The youth should be made to understand that life is not all that easy as seen in movies and all that ‘Bunkum’ of rich parents and snazzy cars and spending time in bars and hotels snazzizily dressed are all make believe.
If they are given importance as ‘Captains’ or start at that level in every service they will understand the value of life and contribute better to society. They will be made to understand that movies are all makebelieve and use it as a tool for entertainment and not make heroes of tinsel stars or more than human and make them lead this country.
Again to encourage them to be of service to the nation in the ‘services’ the salaries and perquisites should be re evaluated every three years and provided for. The value of the perks like school, accomodation, school busing, transportation, helpers etc. should be evaluated at every stage so that the public are made aware that it is not all fight and fury in the Army but also a lot of perks thrown in, ( I think they are out of the ambit of FBT).
If the youth of India are taught their responsibility I am sure we can take up all the challenges that the writer has stated and become what we have been worth all these years!!
Regards,
vck
Excerpts from Barking at the top of the list by Pragmatic:
“Why Has India Become the World’s Top Arms Buyer?â€, screamed the headline at India Ink blog of the New York Times. Of course, the question itself is wrong. India is not the world’s top army buyer; it is merely the biggest arms importer in the world. At least, that is what the data produced by SIPRI for 2007-2011 suggests.
The headline may be misleading but it is borne out of a fundamental belief held by many left-liberal commentators. The usual “Guns v Butter†argument. As a poor country, India should not be spending so much money on weapons when the same money can help the vast swathes of poor and the downtrodden across the land.
India tried to focus on development — at the cost of security — between 1947 and 1962. The lessons of that military disaster with China have taken deep roots in the Indian psyche now. In any case, India spends less than 2% of its GDP on defence and around a quarter of that goes towards buying weapons every year.
When you have China and Pakistan in your neighbourhood, and have to maintain presence in the Indian Ocean to safeguard your Sea Lines of Communication, half a percentage of GDP spent on buying weapons is explicable.