Islamisation of north-east is now a real threat…

Read this worrying report on MULTA courtesy SATP.

Mihir: Will check the link; In the meantime, I am reproducing the article below (from the archives):

***

ARC OF ISLAM*
(Dec ’04)

One of my favorite pastimes is trend-spotting. The fascinating thing about *trends* is that they can be quite difficult to spot, at least at the beginning, but as they gain momentum, they become more and more obvious. The important point is once a trend becomes apparent, it is often too late to influence or moderate it – and although most trends have short life spans, they can sometimes trigger profound changes in the environment – the impact of which persists well after the trend has died.

This is the context in which I would like you to read the next few paragraphs.
Looking back, I find it hard to pin-point a specific event that set me thinking about this trend. What I am referring to are the increasingly conspicuous, yet rarely discussed, aggressive, pan-Asian Islamic movements that are taking roots around our borders.

Over the last few weeks, I read a series of unrelated articles that made me aware of the grave danger being posed by, what I will call, the “Arc of Islam”* that is now emerging around us.
I am not referring to Kashmir or Assam or even Pakistan. The countries that these reports talked about might surprise you – Thailand, Sri Lanka, and Nepal.
Incidentally, all of these have a similar situation as India: a majority non-Muslim population with a very vocal and increasingly aggressive Muslim minority.

What did these reports say?
Some of the headlines were:
“Nepal at Cross Roads Threatening Indian Interests – II” (by Lieutenant Colonel Thakur Kuldip S Ludra(Retd) – a relatively old article dating back to July ’01 which, for example, describes the strategic importance of Nepal and mentions the increasing Pakistani activity in the country (including that of ISI). Amongst other details, it mentions that “Next to India, Pakistan has the largest Embassy in Nepal.” Odd (not to say worrying) when you consider that Nepal does not even share borders with Pakistan and is the only “Hindu” country in the world.

Another headline:
“Sri Lanka: Sufi-led mosque demolished by Wahhabi mobs” , Oct 31, ’04
And then: “Revenge threat over Thai deaths”, Sunday Times, Oct 31, ’04. (For a well-documented background to the Islamic insurgency in Thailand, have a look at “Thailand – Islamic Insurgency” at

Taken separately and if viewed in a disaggregated way, these reports rarely look alarming. However, when you begin to look at the whole picture, things get clearer and worrisome.
Across almost all our borders now, the most serious threat is less the neighboring country but more the cross-border insurgency groups hell-bent on creating trouble and mayhem and most of them having the avowed objective of creating an Islamic society (Incidentally, even in the case of Pakistan, I believe that the current government is relatively well-disposed towards India but the ISI, the Military and the terrorist groups that they sponsor will never let the border remain calm)

Until now, there is little evidence to suggest that the groups may be acting in tandem or that they have any commonality. Their differing levels of sophistication and their inclusion of regional grievances also seem to suggest that there is no common purpose amongst them. The most likely common factor may be their sources of funding in the Middle East – which is not surprising when you consider that most of these groups are inspired by Wahhabi orthodoxy.

But this is where trend-spotting becomes relevant. Even a cursory analysis reveals the influence of extremist Islamic ideology amongst these groups. I am not so naive to bundle them all as al-Qaeda offshoots – at the same time, there is no denying that they can all be loosely grouped under militant Islamic movements.
Political movements frequently have a militant tag attached to them -but in these cases, they carry an additional adjective – “Islamic”.

The Islamic angle (and its influence) to (on) terrorism (and political violence) in other parts of the world is well-documented (witness the continually decreasing influence of moderate, relatively-secular outfits like JKLF in Kashmir and PLO in Palestine and the parallel ascendance of more extreme groups e.g. Hamas) – but there has not been enough analysis of this in the context of our neighborhood.

Today, we see the spectre of militant Islam looming over regions (such as Nepal and Thailand) which one would never have associated with any militancy, let alone Islamic .

Consider the slow but inexorable march of Bangladesh towards a more Islamic regime (e.g. see an excellent analysis that appeared in the Wall Street Journal by Maneeza Hossain titled “Islamists vs. Democracy” [OpEd page on September 27, 2004]
Bear in mind that Pakistan forsook all its pretence to be a modern democratic country by adopting Islam as the guiding principle of statecraft more than 25 years ago **
Add to this an increasingly assertive Islamic minority in Thailand (where there is now a demand for an Islamic state in the 3 southernmost provinces. And finally an increasingly restive Muslim minority in Nepal (almost entirely made up of immigrants from Bangladesh/ India crossing across a porous border) and you can begin to appreciate what I mean by the “Arc of Islam”

With an Islamic Pakistan and a volatile Afghanistan on the west, a militant Muslim minority in Nepal, an Islamic Bangladesh on the east and increasingly aggressive Islamic groups in Thailand and Sri Lanka, should not we be taking notice?
Sadly, trend-watching is a relatively sophisticated activity (which means it is unlikely to influence any political discourse) and politicians are notoriously myopic – which means that even if this threat is recognized, nothing much will be done about it – until the danger becomes obvious – and then it will be to late.

Someone writing about this 50 years from now will wonder how could we have missed such an “obvious” thing.

* This phrase has been in use before and is often used to (loosely) describe the region encompassing countries in North Africa and stretching deep into Central Asia covering the entire Arabian peninsula, the Persian Gulf, Pakistan and Afghanistan.

** (The process began in1978 when Gen Zia announced that Pakistani law would be based on Nizam-i-Mustafa. In 1979 Zia decreed the establishment of shariat courts to try cases under Islamic law. A year later, Islamic punishments were assigned to various violations, including drinking alcoholic beverages, theft, prostitution, fornication, adultery, and bearing false witness. Zia also began a process for the eventual Islamization of the financial system including prohibition on charging of interest or riba)

Saiful: Read this article This weekend, worrying about Assam and the stats presented by Acorn and Wasbir Husain (COnsulting Editor, The Sentinel) – neither is part of “intelligence agencies” to the best of my knowledge.