India, China and Arunachal Pradesh…are we missing something?

Amidst the diplomatic hand-waving and word play that followed Chinese Ambassador Yuxi’s remarks about China’s position on Arunachal Pradesh, one thing must be very clear – almost nothing that comes of any Chinese official media (or any Chinese media since they are all official or semi official anyways) is done without purpose or a place in the wider scheme of things. 

So the worst (and the stupidest) thing for India would be to ignore these remarks and pretend that they were simply the uncontrolled or un-moderated views of a renegade official. 

The fact of the matter is that China does not recognise either the state of Arunachal Pradesh, or the McMahon Line (India’s official boundary line) and at least in that sense the Chinese Ambassador was not saying anything new. 

Of course our government would rather prefer we forget this inconvenient truth – not least because it will mar the Chinese President’s forthcoming visit (week of 20^th November) but also because the Left (on which the government is heavily dependent) still shares strong ideological bonds and affinity with China. 

Significantly, when the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman was asked about the Ambassador’s remarks, she feigned ignorance (“I have not seen such a report. I will make a double check,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman”) and refused to comment on New Delhi’s rejection of Beijing’s claim (of Arunachal Pradesh being Chinese territory). 

Meanwhile quasi-official voices in Beijing are already preparing grounds for arguing that India should return Tawang to China. E.g. see this story:  “India should return Tawang to China”

Instead of desperately trying to create a false sense of bonhomie, the government would do well to be more pragmatic and realistic in its assessment of China.  

Mere wishes (however sincere they are) will not solve long-standing issues nor will them make a strategic challenge go away (In case, you think I am a “China Hawk”, please read the normally mild Condolezza Rice’s recent statement in IHT on China’s massive military build up).

Interestingly, B Raman wrote a prescient article on India-China relations literally days before Ambassador Yuxi’s remarks. Some of the points he mentioned deserve serious attention and discussion: 

Speaking about increase in trade and improvement in bilateral ties, he wrote, “While these developments have been rightly highlighted, the proverbial Chinese firmness in sticking to what they consider to be in their vital national interest, as seen from the slow progress in the talks on the border dispute, has not received the attention it deserves. “

…“In our keenness for better relations with China, we seem prepared to forget what happened to us in the past. The Chinese are not. They still remember the externally-mounted attempts to undermine their control of Tibet in the 1950s and are determined not to let this happen again. For them, control of Tawang is necessary for the definitive control of Tibet. If they give up their demand for Tawang, that could be an indication that they are no longer worried about their control of Tibet.”  

“…The furious pace at which the Chinese have been strengthening their strategic infrastructure in Tibet — roads, railways, airports etc — is not meant only to make life more comfortable for the Tibetans. It is also meant to protect themselves from any future threat to stability in Tibet. In their calculation, if there is such a threat it would most probably arise from India, with the Tibetan Diaspora in India and elsewhere playing an active role, with the covert blessings of the US and its supporters in India.  

To be able to meet such a threat, should it materialise, they would need not only military strength, but a pressure point on India. A pending border dispute gives them such a pressure point.”  

And B Raman accurately puts his finger on China’s biggest concern vis-à-vis strengthening ties between India and the US. “The Chinese may not talk about it in public, but they are concerned over the emerging close relations between India and the US — not because of the military potential of an India-US axis, but because of its moral potential. They fear the likely infectious effect of our democracy in their border areas more than our nuclear weapons.”  

“In our understandable keenness to see only the positive in China, we should not overlook certain constants in their policy.  One

of these constants is to give Pakistan a psychological feeling of parity with India militarily and economically and to buttress the self-confidence of Bangladesh vis-a-vis India. China is not a South Asian power, but look at the way they have built for themselves a growing South Asian presence.” 

“China does not pose a threat to us today, but it has the potential to pose a threat to us tomorrow should relations sour for any unforeseen reason.  

We have to constantly assess that potential and be prepared to face such a contingency should it arise. Before 1963, we had to worry only about the Chinese to the north of us, but today we have to worry about the Chinese to the West and East of us. See how successful has been their Look South policy as compared to our Look East policy.  

The Chinese leadership… wants India to progress and take its due place in Asia and the world, but in its view, the due place of India is one rung below China’s.  The Chinese are far-sighted in their strategic thinking and planning as seen from the way they have been protecting their energy security, for example, and built up a network of political and economic relationships with the oil producing countries of the world.  

Compare the attention which they have been paying to the Islamic world and Africa with the attention which we have been paying to these regions, which are equally important for India if it has to reach its full potential as a major power on par with China.  

One has reasons to be gratified by the way our relations with China have been improving, but that doesn’t mean we close our eyes and ears to what China is or may be up to. Our over-fondness for China and over-faith in its protestations of goodwill in the 1950s landed us in 1962. We should not repeat that mistake.”  

I think all of us would do well to heed these words. 

For my own analysis of China and its impact on India, please read, “China: India’s new “Blind Spot”.  

See also The Rail Line to Tibet and Tibet Railway to extend to Nepal.  

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P.S. Just read this well-researched historical backdrop to the Tibetan issue by Claude Arpi. I will post excerpts separately. 

P.P.S. Came across this letter reportedly written by Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel‘s to Prime Minister Nehru in November 1950 warning about dangers from China. Makes for interesting reading.