On track for 7, Race Course Rd
At the risk of having to eat my own words, here is a bold prediction:
Before 2014, India will have Lalu-ji (Shri Lalu Prasad Yadav) as Prime Minister with Rahul Baba as PM-in-waiting and very likely to “succeed” him in 2014.
To everyone watching the Congress performance in UP, I would say, “Don’t be fooled by the election results…this is just a brake on Rahul Baba’s march to 7 Race Course Road”
The signs of this happening are unmistakable although the dots are scattered all over:
The first dot is that the future of Congress is now inextricably linked to Rahul Gandhi (more on this here and here)
On their own, the Congress will probably be unable to get enough majority to form a government in the next few years (i.e. between now and 2014).
The BJP will most likely be unable to pose a credible challenge to Congress over this period lacking a *star* leader with support and charisma (a la Atal Bihari Vajpayee) and bereft of second generation leaders of substance who can take the battle to the Congress party (If you look at the BJP leaders in their late 30s and 40s and I cannot think of anyone who has a mass following and can become a national level politician).
Outside the Congress and BJP camps, Lalu-ji is probably the only leader who enjoys mass support, has charisma (albeit of a different kind) and has made his mark in the government (The Harvard case study on Indian Railways being a case in point); Mayawati-ji is a contender but she has along way to go before she can match Lalu-ji in experience, wiles and stature.
This means that whatever be the form of the ruling coalition, Lalu-ji will have a role to play in it – in my opinion, the central role to play in it. And this opens the path to his anointment as PM.
Would such a role be possible without Congress or BJP’s support? probably not, but the Congress has something to barter in this case (viz. support for Rahul Baba’s coronation in 2014), while the BJP will probably be happier sitting out of such a government than be roped in.
On track for 7, Race Course Rd., Rahul Baba has seen the future and it appears to be within his grasp.
As the Congress Party prepares for the coronation of its Crown Prince, I keep my head down in shame afraid that my tears of frustration and helplessness will be mistaken for tears of joy by Congress supporters heading for the “darshan” at 10, Janpath.
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For a collection of articles related to Rahul Gandhi, check out these Archives and also have a look at License to Govern
Swapan Dasgupta recently analysed the problem with the “Right” in his article in The Pioneer, “Right awaits its moment”
Excerpts:
“In a recent interview to Tehelka on his new book on post-Independence Indian politics, Ram Guha mentioned …that…the Right has been hamstrung by its close association with Hindu nationalism.
…Guha went on to argue that the intervention of the Right would acquire greater currency if its adherents cease to be “spokesmen” for the BJP.
…It is a fact that the boundaries of so-called “respectable” discourse have been shaped by a Left-liberal consensus. This is particularly so on the vexed questions of nationhood and national identity – what is known as the “secularism” debate.
Even before the Ram Janmabhoomi movement….there was a significant mismatch between the Right’s electoral and intellectual influence. The fierce resistance to Mr Murli Manohar Joshi’s assault on the Left-wing bias in history and the social sciences and the same elite’s acquiescence before Mr Arjun Singh’s “detoxification” campaign are indicative of the lack of equivocation.
….as a political party the BJP steadily acquired all the negative characteristics of the pre-1969 Congress. Dispensing patronage and collecting funds somehow became the rationale of its existence
…
No Indian conservative movement is possible without a meaningful participation of the RSS. Apart from the Sangh’s commitment to India’s inheritance, its relevance stems from its vast organisation and network.
However, in insisting that the RSS must have a controlling interest in the BJP, the Sangh has introduced some needless exclusionary distortions.
First, it has created a divide between those who are from the RSS and those who found Hindu nationalism by another route.
Second, by its stated over-reliance on one tradition, the BJP has failed to inject the dynamism of other social, cultural and religious movements into its bloodstream.
It is particularly significant that the BJP has (except in Gujarat) failed to grasp the opportunities arising from the new Hindu evangelical upsurge.
…Despite some electoral victories in recent months, the BJP has been inflicted by a collective non-application of mind on issues related to economics, national security and India’s relation with the world.”
Swapan’s conclusion is searing and brilliant: “…the BJP is overwhelmed with its awesome show of deficiencies.” Unfortunately, “The Indian Right still awaits its moment.”
Shantanuji,
Your prediction is quite rattling, it glaringly shows the lack of political will, vision & unity among the right today.
Swapan dasgupta as nearly always has given a masterly analysis of ailments afflicting the right, if a dynamic corrective course of action is not immediately begun i am afraid the Indian right’s moment may come & slip away & that shall indeed be quite a setback.
Due to the above stumbling blocks a vast majority feel disillusioned by the BJP & the feeling is compounded when they see no remedial action or alternative path charted out. Your post & its accompanying comment are both timely & must make most us ,concerned with the future of Bharat, deeply ponder & introspect
Hi! Shantanu,
I am humbled and very thankful.
I am honored to have an another colleague and friend like you.I take pleasure to include you in my friends list on my blog and hope that we together with all our ‘well meaning’ friends, shall contribute towards making India ‘The Prudent India’.
This Prudent Indian welcomes another Prudent Indian.
Vande Mataram
PI.
Anirban and PrudentIndian: Thank you both for your comments.
Anirban: Although I hope I will be wrong, I am not sure at all…the way things are going, what I have written is not only likely but a “highly likely* scenario.
PrudentIndian: Thank you for your kind words. This is a long – and hard – journey…and we need all the support we get and all the friends we have…
Jai Hind, Jai Bharat.
Hon.Minister of Railways. Laloo Prasad Yadav has become a Management Ikon in front of the world
Management schools for taking indian railways into profits and now into Surplus.
I personaly havent heard or seen any of his Management lessons about what he teaches to these students. But i am sure he wont be telling them that the railways have increased their revenues by backdoor and hidden cost which are applied to the Indian passenger.
Now Lets see some of the tricks and twicks done by the Railway Minister.
1)The Garib Rath Trains: This train is a fully A/C train with affordable prices for a comman person or A/C 3 tier trains in other words.
Normally a coach of A/C 3 tier consist of 64 berths.. and four toilets.. Now what Laloo ji and his railway ministry has done is they have increased the berths to 82 i.e. an increase of 28% seats in same space… I think laloo ji thinks Indians are chinese with 4feet in heights.
So against an increase of 28% … what is the big deal of reducing the rates of just up to 7%? also the same 82 people will be using the same 4 toilets… no increase in toilets also
2)Nomenclature Business: This a wonderful thinking which Lalooji i guess must has learned from interaction with management Students .. just change the brand name and you get more money.. i.e. 200 Express Trains have been converted into Super Fast Trains. And these superfast trains have no deleted stations nor any cuttage in time.
Just by changing their name plates the extra super trains charges.. i.e. for a sleeper a minimum increase on Rs50/berth to atleast increase of Rs150/berth in AC 3tier. to 300 and 350 in AC 2tier and A/C 1st.
And according to railways 55km/hr is the superfast speed for a train to qualify for this category..
now it could be anyones guess how many trains laloo might convert into this category next year.
A superfast way of duping the indian Public
3)Tatkal Scheme: The basic objective of the tatkal scheme is too give passengers tickets the facility of urgent ticket.. incase of an emergency. When the scheme was introduced Tatkal was 24hours.. as rightly termed for emergency cases and 10% berths were reserved for it… but now Tatkal bookings open 5days in Advance… Chalo we can take this one as suvidha for passengers but… the Quota of Tatkal per train has been increased to 30 % and even to 40% in some trains.
Now lets look how Railways mint money behind this Tatkal schemes…
1)No refund is given on cancellation of Tatkal ticket… so a person who must have booked a Tatkal ticket 5days earlier and if he fills there is no more emergency to travel… his money is lost.
(The cancellation figures of Tatkal are quite in crores which is free money … Brilliant Brain again)
2)In Tatkal you have to pay the full journey ticket. no matter wherever you get aboard or wherever you deboard.
3)Now Laloo ji has not increased the normal fares but he has increased the quota of Tatkal upto 30 to 40% … no lets take this examples of this. I want to travel from Delhi to Lucknow in a tatkal quota and the trains could be originating from Delhi but definately going ahead,after haulting at Lucknow.
Delhi – Lucknow :A/C 2tier Normal ticket cost Rs 830 / While Avg Tatkal cost: Rs1130 i.e. 40%more
Delhi – Lucknow :A/C 3tier Normal ticket cost Rs 604/ While Avg Tatkal cost: Rs904 i.e. 50%more
Delhi – Lucknow :Sleeper Normal ticket cost Rs 235/ While Avg Tatkal cost: Rs485 i.e. 106%more
Now this above example shows 30% of Tatkal quota passenger always pays 40 to 100% more.
Again thanx to Laloojis Management skills.. no no Laloos magic ka raaz why he is not increasing the passenger fair rates.
4)Reservations days have increased from 60 days to 90 days…
again facility for public but again increase in cancellation revenues for the Railways and interest free money to utilize for 90days!! … railways should offer discouts like airlines do but.. profit badhana hai janta koh loot na hai
5)Now the Fare cut annoucements:
This has been extensively written in newspaper and spoken by media how misleading this announcements or the cache behind the annoucements made by Laloo ji.
He has annouced 7% to 4% fare cut on various levels from AC1 to sleeper. but the cache is
# It will be applicable only on the 225 new coaches which will be built in next 3 years.. as the railway minister has not yet clarified in detail yet
#This fare cuts will not be effective on all the 450 popular trains
#The fare cuts will be applicable only in the lean period of 3 months i.e. 15thJuly to 15thSept
Now Freight rates and Public private partnership in containers and wagon trains i dont want to get in but again a lot of laloo tricks have been used in it which finally affects the comman Janta .
A simple example is of the Coal Mines which used 90% of Indian railways … i.e. the coal wagons
rent is fixed which was some 40tons earlier but after Laloo jis comming in suddenly the same coal wagons can bare 60tons.. and normally the coal wagon is ladden with not more than 40tons of freight but because Laloo has applied FIXED rates for a coal wagon… i.e. you load 1ton or 60tons but you will be charged for 60tons. And this 50% excess cost is finally passed down to the end user in our ELECTRICITY BILL…. and we blame Power companys of why the rates gave gone from Rs1.5 to Rs3/unit (home use).
6)IRCTC services: IRCTC stands for Indian railways Catering and tourism corp.:
A person on a train spends at least 20rupees/day in food related articles. All the caterers in the Indian railways are privatised. Intially these private caterers used to be charged Rs30000 to Rs50000/year as rents based on their size of stalls and services rendered. But now the railways charge Up to Rs5lakhs to some of these stall owners as rent.. and these stall owners further
are charging the non MRP goods heavily… eg:Tea cost Rs5/- Wadapav Rs8
lalooji drinks his tea in his pottery cup.. he thinks of promoting the potterry cup but he doesnt feels necessary to put schemes like Zhunka Bhakar kendra on stattion platform.which provides roti bhaazi i Rs1/- and tea for Rs2/-.
Similarly he promotes railways packeged drinking water of Rs10/- but not free tap drinking water..in good conditions… The revenues of Packaged drinking water + tea + wadapav … will be mind boggling!… bechara railway pravasi.. they still think Laloo is great!.
Finally i would like to conclude by saying i have no objection if our Union Railway Ministers . Shri Laloo Prasad Yadav, lectures… Harward Stanfords and other top Managements Schools.. but not by fooling foreginers at the cost of our Indian publics hard earned money .
Master stroke from Lalu-ji:
Comment of the Day from bnsatish (on IBNLive):
Just read this post, Shantanu, and your forecast!
My bold forecast: The 2009 national elections will deliver a far more fractured verdict, compared with 2004. It will very likely yield a communist-backed third-front government (the stuff of my most horrible nightmares), which will probably be led by Mayawati. Essentially, we will face two years of complete instability and economic slowdown.
Two reasons why Mayawati trumps Laloo:
1. The communists consider Laloo as a traitor to the socialistic cause and feels he should have also left the UPA govt during the Nuclear vote
2. Mayawati will have more seats behind her than Laloo, simply because she is from UP, while Laloo is from a truncated Bihar.
Also, I think, we the city-types, have always and consistently underestimated Mayawati – she led a rainbow coalition of supporters to a majority govt in UP – how many predicted that? And, this was long before Obama made the term rainbow coalition famous!
WELL SAID PATRIOT .at last u noticed the brahmin factor in the rise of mayawati .infact ,mayawati achievement is ten times bigger than obama’a if u consider the geopolitical factors . obama take a bow to madam mayawati.
Day not far when Rahul becomes PM: Pranab
See also: Lalu Prasad Yadav, Possibly India’s Next Prime Minister
The day is not far when son follows the footstep of mother and becomes president of India.
How the mighty have fallen..
Once upon a time there was a mighty politician who seemed to redefine “Teflon”..
Nothing would stick to him..and with time, his prowess increased, his fame spread, reaching as far as the shores of Harvard University…
He was celebrated as a Minister who meant “Business”..
Many (including yours truly) saw him on an unstoppable march towards 7, Race Course Road..
Today all that seems hard to believe..But many who are not from the 90s generation remember this man as the epitome of all that wrong in Indian politics…
As LokSatta leader Dr Jayaprakash Narayan tweeted earlier today, “Lalu’s rise and fall are a symbol of a generation’s failure. We wasted three decades by delaying political & economic reform.”
But today, justice has been done.
We still have hope, our dreams have just got a fresh start..
Today, lets take a brief moment to celebrate the conviction of one of the mightiest politicians in independent India..
..and renew our resolve to “Reclaim India”..Jai Hind, Jai Bharat!
Also check https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fodder_Scam